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Screening season
Political parties cannot ignore public aspirations or force their will against the people about the best presidential and vice presidential candidates.
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Surprising guest: Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who ran in the 2019 presidential election, made an appearance on the Close The Door podcast, garnering 12 million views per July 2021.
(Close The Door/Courtesy of Deddy Corbuzier)
W
ith less than three years remaining before Indonesians vote for their president and vice president for the 2024-2029 term, supporters have started to campaign for their potential candidates. Within a span of only two days last week, supporters declared their nomination of Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and Defense Minister and Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto.
On Wednesday a group calling itself the National Alliance for a Prosperous Indonesia (ANIES) announced support for Anies to run for president, citing his pro-people style of leadership in the megalopolitan, such as the Jakarta Smart Card and the Jakarta Health Card programs. On Friday the West Java chapter of Gerindra demanded the party nominate Prabowo for president, regardless of the three successive defeats in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 races.
These declarations of support come as no surprise. A number of surveys over the past two years have consistently put the two figures among the most favorite candidates to replace President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term unless the Constitution is amended. Prominent potential candidates also include Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil. Big names like Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto and House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani have remained outsiders despite the fact that their smiley faces appear on giant billboards set up in many places.
Kompas research and development unit and Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC), among the few pollsters with credible track records, have however discovered a downward trend in Prabowo’s electability rating and, conversely, Ganjar’s persistent rise.
Perhaps Ganjar will someday emerge as the frontrunner, but the toughest hurdle ironically comes from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which he is a member. As has widely been reported, some of the PDI-P top brass have floated Puan, the daughter of the party’s matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri, as potential presidential or vice presidential candidate.
Due to fears of party division, Megawati has banned party cadres from supporting or campaigning for individual candidates. In such a strategic issue like the presidential candidacy, the party has entrusted its matriarch to decide, as happened in the last two presidential races that Jokowi won.
The Constitution stipulates that presidential and vice presidential candidates are proposed by political parties or coalition of parties, which was why the Constitutional Court rejected in 2008 a judicial review motion filed against the presidential election law that would otherwise have allowed independent candidates to contest presidential races.
But it does not mean political parties can ignore public aspirations or force their will against the people about the best presidential and vice presidential candidates. Public opinion surveys, especially those conducted by institutions known for their credibility, reflect the voices of the people in the grassroots and therefore should be responded to by political parties accordingly.
Political parties can therefore start their screening process, by measuring all the good and the bad of the candidates, or if necessary, initiating preliminary talks with them to see whether they can work together. As the 2024 presidential race looks set to give the political parties a level playing field, the sooner they prepare for the contest the better.
