If we scrutinize the dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia over Ambalat, several important facts come to light. First, the gentlemen’s agreement between Indonesia and Malaysia to resolve the dispute through negotiations has failed to restrain Malaysia from provoking tensions.

In the first four months of 2009 alone, TNI recorded 14 breaches of Indonesian territory in Ambalat by Malaysia. In 2008 there were 23 such intrusions and 76 in 2007, not including several aerial incursions by Malaysian aircraft.

Second, regardless of the fact that TNI has deployed warships and reconnaissance flights in the area, not to mention its establishment of outposts on Sebatik island, Malaysia seems undeterred from breaching Indonesian territory.

Third, the spirit of the ASEAN brotherhood, which has functioned as the unifier of the region, has not prevented Malaysia from provoking Indonesia.

Malaysian incursions into Ambalat, in my opinion, have so far given Malaysia a better bargaining position vis a vis Indonesia. Even though Malaysia started the provocation by regularly sending its war vessels into Ambalat, which Indonesia claims as its sovereign zone, it was Indonesia who took the initiative to defuse the stand-off – not the other way around.

On June 8, 2009, Indonesia even sent representatives to Kuala Lumpur to discuss the stand-off with their counterparts and other concerned stakeholders.

Indonesian legislators reaffirmed Indonesia’s claim to Ambalat waters while at the same time urging Malaysia to continue negotiations. Furthermore, Malaysia’s provocation has managed to divide public opinion in Indonesia.

There are some who want Indonesia to take stern action against Malaysia and have accused the government of being too lenient with its neighbor, while others say that Indonesia needs to restrain itself for the sake of good neighborly relations and regional stability.

At the moment, Malaysia seems to welcome Indonesia’s initiative to reduce tensions following the recent Ambalat stand off.

On June 10, 2009, when meeting with the Indonesian legislators, the Chief of Staff of the Malaysian Navy apologized for unintentionally breaching Indonesian territory and promised not to repeat such incursions.

On the same day, although this was two days after Indonesian legislators’ arrived in Kuala Lumpur, the chief of the Malaysian armed forces flew to Jakarta to meet the Indonesian defense minister and chief of TNI in Jakarta.

Malaysia agreed to curb its patrols in the area with the goal of avoiding sovereign Indonesian zones.

Both ministries of foreign affairs are also set to resume the 14th round of negotiations in Kuala Lumpur in July.

But this is not the end of the story. In April 2005, Indonesian navy vessel KRI Tedong Naga collided with Malaysia’s KDM Rencong in Ambalat.

The incident caused nationwide hysteria and inflamed anti-Malaysian sentiment. Indonesia lodged a complaint with the Malaysian government, leading Malaysia to agree to cool down.

Both sides eventually agreed to resolve the dispute through bilateral negotiations. Unfortunately, Malaysia continued to repeat the incursions on a regular basis until May 2009, when the Indonesian public again became enraged.

Sending its warships to the area more than one hundred times within the four years that negotiations were in process is a clear indication that Malaysia seeks to pursue other means to settle the dispute.

The repeated incursions (since 2005) as the two countries sat at the negotiation table were not isolated or unrelated incidents. It is quite difficult not to conclude that these incursions were deliberately intended to coincide with the negotiation process. This gun-boat diplomatic strategy sought to use the armed forces to bolster its negotiating power.

This subtle intimidation was again present at the meeting between the chief of staff of the Malaysian Navy and the Indonesian legislators.

While he indeed openly apologized in front of the Indonesian legislators, he did not fail to mention that Malaysia would not deploy its state-of-the-art Scorpene-class attack submarine to the area.

The message was clear: the Malaysian Navy has a modern fleet that it can deploy it anytime and that the TNI might not be a match for.   

The fact that the TNI flotilla deployed in the area has yet to take stronger action to deter Malaysian vessels from entering Ambalat might further explain why Malaysia is determined to pursue this strategy of gun boat diplomacy. The widely, publicly known condition of the Indonesian navy and air force only makes things worse.

The other thing that needs serious consideration is the position of ASEAN within the context of Indonesian national interests. Since its foundation in 1967, Indonesia has always made ASEAN it first foreign policy priority.

However ASEAN comes second for Malaysia, which puts its national interests first when it comes to issues of territorial sovereignty. Before Ambalat, Malaysia took a similar position on the Sipadan and Ligitan Islands, taking the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), against Indonesia’s proposal to deal with the problem at the ASEAN level.

The resulting loss of territory was disastrous for Indonesia. This should not be forgotten now Indonesia has to choose either to protect its national interests or uphold the ASEAN brotherhood.     

As the largest country in the region Indonesia has always pursued diplomacy to address disputes; it does not deserve to be treated like this.

Although we are committed to this principle and keen to uphold the spirit of brotherhood in the region, we should not hesitate when it comes to protecting our national interests.

Indonesia therefore needs to modernize its Navy and Air Force with the goal of protecting its archipelago. The concerned stakeholders should be fully authorized to design comprehensive standard operating procedures for facing such crises. Strong measures, including opening fire at intruders in the case that warning signs are disregarded, must be included. Only then will we be able to effectively deter those who try to mess with us.

The author is an Indonesian diplomat. This is his personal opinion.

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