The widely publicized meeting between President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and chief patron of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto has led to speculation that the two have struck a deal for a political alliance ahead of the 2014 presidential election.

The meeting between Yudhoyono and Prabowo appeared to have been stage-managed to get the widest media coverage possible, with the schedule for the meeting being distributed hours before the meeting took place.

Prabowo, who is a former commander of the Special Forces Command (Kopassus) and a friend of Yudhoyono from his military college days, was accompanied by Fadli Zon, his party’s deputy chairman.

According to Fadli, the two discussed “substantial matters” which included Yudhoyono’s latest trip to Europe and some domestic political and economic issues.

Fadli however declined to give more details of the meeting, especially on the issue of Prabowo’s presidential bid in 2014, saying that he was asked to leave the room when Yudhoyono and Prabowo had a 20-minute closed-door private meeting.

Prior to the meeting, Prabowo did not rule out the possibility that he and Yudhoyono could talk about a potential alliance ahead of the 2014 election. “Politics is dynamic. We’ll see,” he said.

After the meeting, Prabowo also was tight-lipped over his presidential bid. He only confirmed that he would run in 2014 but did not respond when asked about forging an alliance with Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party. “The President said in the meeting that anyone planning to run for president must be down-to-earth and listen to the people’s wishes,” he said.

Presidential spokesman Julian Aldrin Pasha said the media had read too much into the meeting. “Both men are old friends. They have met numerous times in the past,” Julian said.

Analysts, however, suspect that the meeting was part of Yudhoyono’s “political survival” and “exit strategy”. Because the Constitution prevents Yudhoyono from running for a third term, it would be necessary for him to ensure that all scandals implicating him or his family are swept under the rug when his tenure ends in 2014.

And as his Democratic Party has not picked a presidential candidate, the possibility of backing Prabowo’s candidacy is now greater with his electability rating continuing to rise.

“SBY may see Prabowo as the most prospective ‘safe house’ after 2014,” Freedom Institute political analyst Yudi Latif said.

Several politicians have been reportedly endorsed by Yudhoyono for the 2014 presidential election. They include State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan and Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Djoko Suyanto, all of whom are regularly overshadowed by Prabowo in opinion polls.

Another politician who is also believed to have been endorsed by Yudhoyono is Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, who is chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN). But Hatta’s overtures to the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) chairman and former chief of the Indonesian Military (TNI) Gen. (ret.) Wiranto has led many to speculate that the two could prepare a presidential ticket for 2014.

The possible alliance between Yudhoyono and Prabowo has concerned human rights activists, who have long campaigned against Prabowo’s presidential bid.

Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras) coordinator Haris Azhar said Yudhoyono could have offered not to endorse efforts to investigate the May 1998 human rights violation, which could implicate the former Kopassus chief, as an incentive to Prabowo.

“It is impossible for Yudhoyono not to be aware of Prabowo’s past record. In politics, the calculation is easy; what will I get in return and what I will give to you? In this sense, we are really concerned that enforcement of human rights is being used as a political commodity,” he said.

Opposition to a Yudhoyono-Prabowo pact also came from within Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party.

Young politicians within the party including former rights activist Rachland Nashidik and Ulil Abshar Abdalla said that part of the mission of the party was to prevent Prabowo from becoming the country’s next president.

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