T

he large parties had the last laugh as the Constitutional Court on Thursday upheld the threshold of 20 percent of House of Representatives seats, or 25 percent of the popular vote in the legislative election, for political parties or coalitions of parties to nominate a presidential candidate.

The ruling dealt a severe blow to the leaders of small parties, particularly Yusril Ihza Mahendra, a constitutional law professor and a presidential aspirant from the Crescent Star Party (PBB), who filed a judicial review against the threshold, which he said breached the Constitution.

It had been widely reported that parties with a greater number of seats at the House insisted the threshold remained unchanged, while those with few seats preferred the elimination mechanism.

Article 9 of the Presidential Election Law says presidential and vice presidential candidates are proposed by political parties or a combination of parties that win 20 percent of seats at the House or 25 percent of the popular vote in the legislative election.

Yusril said the article ran counter to the 1945 Constitution, which stipulates that presidential and vice presidential candidates are proposed by political parties and a coalition of parties, without mentioning any additional requirements.

In its rejection of Yusril'€™s legal challenge, however, the court referred to its ruling in January when it decided the legislative and presidential elections would be held simultaneously starting in 2019. The court ruled that the current election mechanism '€” holding legislative and presidential elections on different dates '€” contradicted the Constitution, which considers the legislature and the executive as equal in power.

Among the considerations for the verdict was the concern from the panel of justices about inefficiency and rampant horse-trading practices that could possibly plague presidential and legislative elections if they were held separately.

The January verdict was issued in response to a judicial review filed by political communication expert Effendi Gazali and the Coalition of Civil Society for Simultaneous Elections Indonesia.

The court insisted on Thursday the threshold could only apply if the elections were held on different dates. It also argued that the simultaneous presidential and legislative elections could only start in 2019 because preparations for the 2014 elections had already begun and had even entered the final stages.

It is too late in the game to change the electoral schedule without causing chaos.

Despite the pros and cons, the court'€™s verdict is final and binding and all parties have to honor it. Any intention to change the presidential threshold must be brought for deliberation again at the House for the 2014-2019 period.

The ruling was badly needed because it will pave the way for the legislative election, scheduled for April 9, which will determine the course of the presidential election slated for July 9.

With the issuance of the verdict, all parties can now focus on the legislative election with a hope they can meet the threshold to qualify for the presidential election.

Now that the old presidential threshold stands, observers predict the race for the highest office in the land will turn into a three-way contest. Previous surveys found that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) stood a good chance of winning the most seats in the legislative election, in particular after it officially named Jakarta Governor Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo its presidential candidate.

Another party that may fulfill the threshold is the Golkar Party, which has nominated its chairman Aburizal Bakrie as its presidential candidate. The third contender could be Prabowo Subianto, whose Gerindra Party is tipped to finish third in the legislative election.

While his potential contenders were busy campaigning, Jokowi visited leaders of the country'€™s largest Muslim organizations: Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), on the same day. He met Muhammadiyah chairman Din Syamsuddin in Jakarta and NU chief patron Mustofa Bisri in the Central Java town of Rembang, about 500 kilometers east of the capital in the evening.

Jokowi'€™s candidacy for the president has led to suggestions that the ruling Democratic Party and Golkar downgrade their targets.

Despite calls for him to reconsider his presidential bid, however, Aburizal maintained his nomination was final. He was also confident about winning the presidential election. Responding to reporters'€™ queries about a possible change of plan following the PDI-P'€™s move, Aburizal said Golkar'€™s strategy remained the same, with or without Jokowi being nominated.

A Democratic Party executive, meanwhile, said the nomination of Jokowi may force the party to nominate only a vice presidential candidate, despite its ongoing presidential convention. Any decision on whether the party would nominate a presidential or vice presidential candidate would be the prerogative of the supreme assembly, the party'€™s most influential organ, which is chaired by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Numerous surveys have shown that the ruling party will struggle to reach double digits in the percentage of votes to be garnered in the legislative election, simply due to the graft cases implicating an array of Democrats, including former youth and sports minister Andi Mallarangeng, who is now on trial.

'€” Hyginus Hardoyo