The Jakarta Post
Nationwide opinion polls conducted by two independent pollsters have found that the July 9 presidential election is going to be a tight race.
The Jakarta-based Pol-Tracking Institute and the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) have found that the gap between the Gerindra Party-led coalition's Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)-led coalition's Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo-Jusuf Kalla is now only between 6 and 7 percent with the Prabowo-Hatta ticket continuing to gain momentum.
Pol-Tracking found that if the election was to have taken place between May 25 and June 2, the Jokowi-Kalla ticket would have won 48.5 percent of the vote, only 7.4 percent ahead of Prabowo-Hatta at 41.1 percent.
Pol-Tracking interviewed 2,010 respondents for the survey.
The survey also found that victory is attainable by either ticket given the number of undecided voters.
'The survey also found that undecided voters account for 10.4 percent of the total electorate, greater than the 7.4 percent gap. It is worth noting this survey was conducted prior to the official campaigning period and before the first nationwide televised debate [on June 9], which may have greatly influenced voters' preferences,' Pol-Tracking Institute executive director Hanta Yuda told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.
Hanta said that the two pairs of candidates would have to work hard until polling day to get the votes of the undecided.
The survey also found that the Prabowo-Hatta ticket would garner 47.8 percent of young voters aged between 17 and 22, while the Jokowi-Kalla ticket would get 45.1 percent of this age group.
The Jokowi-Kalla ticket, however, is winning support among the older generation. Pol-Tracking found that 44 percent of voters aged 50 years old and over would vote for Jokowi-Kalla. Prabowo-Hatta was predicted to get 41.2 percent.
The two pairs have also been keen to woo Muslim voters, who account for 80 percent of the total 185 million eligible voters.
The survey found that Jokowi-Kalla would get the support of 48.1 percent of members of the country's largest Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), against Prabowo-Hatta's 41.7 percent.
As for the second-largest Muslim organization Muhammadiyah, 44.6 percent of that organization's members are expected to vote for Prabowo-Hatta, against Jokowi-Kalla's 42.3 percent. 'However, of around 47.9 percent of Muslim voters who claim not to be affiliated with either [organization], 24 percent said they would vote for Jokowi-Kalla, against 18.9 percent for Prabowo-Hatta,' Hanta said.
The Jokowi-Kalla ticket is supported by the PDI-P, the NasDem Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Hanura Party and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), while Prabowo-Hatta is backed by Gerindra, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP), the Golkar Party, the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
In terms of support from voters who are affiliated with political parties, the survey found that Prabowo-Hatta was preferred by 82.5 percent of Gerindra voters, and 55.4 percent of PKS, 51.1 percent of Golkar, 51.1 percent of PAN, 46.7 percent of PPP and 75 percent of PBB voters.
Meanwhile, Jokowi-Kalla is favored by 81.2 percent of PDI-P voters, and 61.3 percent of NasDem, 57.7 percent of PKB, 54.5 percent of Hanura and 50 percent of PKPI voters.
Separately, a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) between June 1 and 9 found that 45 percent of 2,400 respondents would vote for Jokowi-Kalla, just 6 percent ahead of Prabowo-Hatta's 38.7 percent. 'The competition is getting tougher and both still have the opportunity to outdo the other in the upcoming election,' LSI researcher Adjie Alfaraby said in Jakarta on Sunday.
The survey found that around 16.3 percent of voters remained undecided.
The LSI found in September 2013 that Jokowi polled highest in surveys of potential presidential candidates at 50.3 percent, while Prabowo was only at 11.1 percent. Meanwhile, in March 2014 Jokowi and Prabowo got 46.3 percent and 22.1 percent respectively.
In May Jokowi's popularity rating was 35.42 percent while Prabowo's was 22.75 percent.
The LSI found in late June that only 32.8 percent of respondents were aware of allegations of human rights abuses committed by Prabowo.
In the graphic attached to the story 'New Surveys find race getting tighter' published on June 16, we erroneously published the figure of the popularity of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI-P) Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo in September 2013 at 1.30 percent, compared to the Gerindra Party's Prabowo Subianto at 11.1 percent. The correct figure for Jokowi was 50.3 percent. We apologize for the error.
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