Crude oil prices have risen to four-year highs, led mainly by concerns that the impact of United States’ sanctions on Iranian supply may be larger than expected, and a lack of clarity about exports by the Middle East supplier implies more volatility in the months ahead.
ICE Brent and NYMEX crude futures have gained around 20 percent since mid-August, with ICE Brent crude futures breaching the US$85 per barrel mark in early October.
S&P Global Platts Analytics in late September increased its forecast for cuts in Iranian oil exports from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.7 million bpd once the sanctions take effect on Nov. 5. Platts Analytics expects Iranian crude and condensate exports to fall to 1.1 million bpd in October, and to 800,000 bpd by the fourth quarter of 2019, down from 2.91 million bpd in April.
Total estimated export volumes on Aframaxes, S...