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Analysis: Prabowo, the comeback kid of the 2024 elections

Up until last week, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto had faced pressures, from within and outside his Gerindra party.

Tenggara Strategics (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Mon, April 17, 2023

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Analysis: Prabowo, the comeback kid of the 2024 elections
Indonesia Decides

Up until last week, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto had faced pressures, from within and outside his Gerindra party, to quit the 2024 presidential race because all surveys overwhelmingly showed he could not beat any of the other two likely contenders, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan.

If he ignores what these surveys have told him, he risks going down in Indonesia’s political history as a three-time loser, a national, maybe even a world, record. He lost his presidential bids in 2014 and 2019, both times to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. It will actually be his fourth defeat if we count 2009 when he ran as running mate to Megawati Sukarnoputri and lost that one too.

Others have cited his health and his temperament as reasons for the 71-year former Army general to drop out of the 2024 race. Essentially, surveys tell him to just forget about it and spare himself a big embarrassment. But now the table appears to have been turned and his campaign team is being reinvigorated.

Two factors account for this: Ganjar, who had previously topped all opinion surveys, is paying a heavy price for causing FIFA to cancel Indonesia as host of this May soccer Under-20 World Cup, and the formation of a grand alliance of five political parties, with Prabowo as its presidential candidate.

A new opinion poll released by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) on Monday put Prabowo at the top in a simulated three-horse race, gathering 30.3 percent support from the 1,229 people surveyed, ahead of Ganjar with 26.9 percent and Anies with 25.3 percent. Compared with the last survey in March, his gain came almost entirely from Ganjar, who saw his share of the support fall 8-percentage points.

The LSI is one of the leading survey agencies regularly putting out opinion poll results, and most of them are in agreement about where to place Prabowo, Anies and Ganjar, with slight variations in percentages. Most had put Ganjar and Anies as the two top contenders who would move to the second round in the unlikely event of any candidate winning a simple majority in the first round.

In 2019, Prabowo lost to Jokowi but still won 45 percent of the votes. He has since lost many of these supporters who were dismayed at his decision to join Jokowi’s cabinet after losing the 2019 election. Many supporters, particularly Muslim conservatives, are switching their votes to Anies.

Prabowo is almost certain to clinch a presidential ticket, having the support of his own Gerindra Party and the Nation Awakening Party (PKB). His position was bolstered last week when three parties, Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Mandate Party (PAN), joined to form a grand coalition. If one or two parties defected, he would still have enough support to earn the ticket. Anies also is almost assured of a ticket, with endorsements coming from NasDem Party, the Democratic Party and the Justice Welfare Party (PKS).

What’s more

Presidential nominations must come from a political party, or a coalition of parties, which control at least 20 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives.

Ganjar, despite his popularity before the U-20 soccer scandal, is still waiting for word from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Party chair Megawati Soekarnoputri is holding back announcing the presidential candidate, torn between Ganjar and daughter Puan Maharani, the House Speaker who has consistently scored low in all opinion polls.

Many soccer fans, and their number is likely larger than Muslim conservatives, say now they would not vote for Ganjar, blaming him for depriving Indonesia from hosting a prestigious international sporting event. The latest LSI survey reflects this. The PDI-P has the automatic right to nominate a presidential candidate on its own, having enough House seats to meet the threshold.

Prabowo received a further boost with the apparent endorsement of Jokowi, who met with the five party leaders of the grand coalition. Although Jokowi does not control any political party, he has a huge loyal followers who will give their votes to the candidate that has his blessing.

The constitution bars Jokowi from running for a third term in office, but his interests in the 2024 race are to ensure that his successor would protect his legacies, including continuing the controversial and expensive project to move the national capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, a new city now being developed out of a forested area in East Kalimantan.

Prabowo has presented himself as the candidate who would protect Jokowi’s legacy.

In spite of their rivalry in the last two elections, Prabowo has been loyal to the President as a member of the Cabinet. He has been careful not to be seen in opposition to Jokowi on any issue. Unlike Ganjar, he refrained from commenting on Indonesia’s hosting the U-20 World Cup that would have seen the participation of Israel, a country with which Indonesia has not diplomatic relations.

Jokowi had earlier tried to pair Prabowo with Ganjar to run on one ticket, summoning them to the presidential palace. Their recent joint appearances in public events fueled the rumors.

PDI-P insiders insisted that if they were going to run together, Ganjar should run for president, giving Prabowo the vice-presidential slot with extra powers, including the defense portfolio.  

But now with Prabowo leading according to the LSI survey, it is unlikely that he will settle for the second slot. The pairing of Ganjar and Prabowo is not in the cards anymore.

The election is still 10 months away, and the coalitions of parties, formed for the purpose of selecting presidential candidates, can still fall apart, especially when parties realize they are competing against one another in the legislative elections, which will take place simultaneously with the presidential election on Feb. 14, 2024. For most parties, winning seats in the national and local legislatives is far more important than the presidential election.

The field in the presidential race can still change by the time formal nomination closes in November. The current frontrunners, including Prabowo, may not even make it to the nomination stage.

What we’ve heard

According to a politician from PAN, Zulkifli Hassan conveyed to Prabowo that the 2024 presidential election is a golden opportunity for the Gerindra chairman because he has the blessing of President Jokowi. The politician further stated that PAN would support Prabowo because they had previously worked together in the previous two presidential elections.

Prabowo has also prepared for the logistics of his campaign. One of his close associates revealed that he had met with Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, who suggested that Prabowo should pair up with Erick because they have strong financial backing. However, Prabowo reportedly said that he can handle the logistics on his own and is confident of winning the election.

Another source mentioned that Prabowo is also counting on the support of his brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who is a businessman and owns the Arsari Group, which operates in in mining and forestry sectors. Hashim also has several other businesses near the capital city, including a water project worth US$330 million under PT Arsari Tirta Pradana.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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