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Will Prabowo emulate Duterte’s approach to South China Sea?
Any concession on Natuna will have a profound and enduring impact on Indonesia, and the outcome will likely prove more adverse than President Prabowo may anticipate.
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Rear Adm. Yudo Margono (front left), former commander of Joint Defense Regional Command I, inspects Indonesian troops on Jan. 3, 2020, at a military base in Natuna Islands regency, the Riau Islands, in this handout photo provided by the Indonesian Military (TNI). (AFP/Handout)
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n Sunday, several Indonesian and foreign diplomats texted me to express their shock over the 14-point joint statement, especially point 9, issued after the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and visiting President Prabowo Subianto in Beijing on Saturday. They were curious if Prabowo would reverse Indonesia’s long-standing position on China’s nine-dash line in the South China Sea, or if it was simply a show of negligence from our side.
A veteran Indonesian diplomat asked, “Could this be interpreted as Indonesia recognizing China's nine-dash line and undermining its own sovereignty, or just going it alone?” He continued, “Joint development cooperation in the overlapping waters claimed by the two countries [makes it] seem like we are giving legitimacy to PRC maritime claims.”
A senior journalist deems that the Foreign Ministry’s long-standing position on the South China Sea and Natuna waters must change in line with the vision of Prabowo, a former Army general.
“Watch out for more changes in long time foreign policy positions under Prabowo. Diplomats and military see things differently,” he said in a WhatsApp group conversation.
The joint statement is called the “Joint Statement Between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Indonesia on Advancing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the China-Indonesia Community with a Shared Future”.
On point 9, the two leaders do not explicitly refer to the tensions between the two countries in the North Natuna waters. The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) grants Indonesia the sovereign right to exploit resources in the waters as its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), but China claims that the area has been the fishing ground of its seafarers for thousands of years.
According to the joint statement: “Both sides emphasized maritime cooperation as an important component of the comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Indonesia. Both will actively explore and carry out more maritime cooperation projects, cultivate more bright spots [and] jointly safeguard peace and tranquility of the ocean, [while improving] the maritime governance system, keeping the ocean clean and beautiful and achieving maritime prosperity.”
