For Indonesia, which is situated at the crossroads of the Indo-Pacific, these developments are far from distant. The shifting dynamics call for a thoughtful recalibration of the country’s defense posture and diplomatic engagement, ensuring that it remains agile and resilient amid great-power tensions.

The US-China contest is not merely a clash of titans but a profound struggle for influence in an increasingly anarchic international system. As Hans Morgenthau, a prominent realist thinker in international relations, posited, “International politics, like all politics, is a struggle for power”.

The friction between these two superpowers, intensified by the tariff war and the race for military technologies in armed conflicts, is reshaping the global order, with significant ramifications for nations like Indonesia.

The year 2025 served as a turning point, highlighting the economic front of this rivalry. The US, under President Donald Trump, imposed a staggering minimum base tariff of 10 percent on nearly all imported goods, specifically targeting countries with substantial trade deficits, predominantly China. This provocative move ignited a tit-for-tat tariff war, culminating in an unprecedented escalation where tariffs soared to 145 percent on Chinese goods and 125 percent on US goods entering China.

This economic strife not only complicates bilateral relations but also reverberates through global supply chains, impacting economies worldwide, including Indonesia’s.

However, the military aspect of this rivalry presented a new and alarming dimension during the recent India-Pakistan conflict. Pakistan's military, equipped primarily with Chinese-made weaponry, could match India's more expensive Western and Russian platforms in a three-day war.