Let us travel forward in time to the year 2045.

Imagine a future where a major war in the South China Sea has been averted. Discord over territory has been set aside to foster cross-channel cooperation that, one day, might lead to peaceful reunification.

This outcome was made possible because ASEAN was able to influence and mediate what was once seen as an irreconcilable dispute. When the moment came, ASEAN, as a genuine community of nations, resolutely decided to push for and stand with unequivocal values.

This principled foreign policy was built on a pivotal 2025 speech by Chan Chun Sing, then Singapore's defense minister, at the Shangri-La Dialogue. At the time, Chan had said, “Singapore does not base its positions on who the key players are in a given issue but instead, we look at every situation very carefully to decide what the principles that are at stake are.”

He continued, “If we have to choose sides, may we choose the side of principles, principles that uphold a global order where we do not descend into a law of the jungle, where the mighty do what they wish and the weak suffer what they must.” This stance was a continuation of Singapore's decision to unequivocally stand with Ukraine when it was invaded by Russia.

In the years following that speech, Chan's words shaped ASEAN’s common foreign policy, which the Community aptly put into practice during the 2030s.

Internally, ASEAN also transformed into a people-centric space. By 2045, the hybrid mechanism known as the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA) has been turned into a regional parliament with both directly elected and government-appointed representatives. The ASEAN Court of Justice, initially limited to economic disputes, has broadened its mandate to include civil and political rights.

While not all ASEAN nations in 2045 are full-fledged democracies, some might be classified as majoritarian systems or even illiberal democracies, their citizens no longer end up in jail for criticizing their governments. Opposition parties can operate freely, even if the system is still somewhat rigged against them.

Furthermore, ASEAN has become a trailblazer by creating the first-ever youth-led regional permanent forum, which fully includes youths from indigenous communities. The ASEAN Award has also been upgraded to a multi-award initiative with a special category for environmental human rights defenders.

In 2045, ASEAN is not a perfect community of democracies, but it is a very promising experiment.

Now, let us return to the present.

This idealistic future stands in stark contrast to the recently approved ASEAN Vision 2045. While representing an incremental improvement on its predecessor, this new blueprint will never create the conditions for the scenario described above.

Just two weeks ago, Kuala Lumpur was the epicenter of ASEAN policymaking as Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosted the 46th ASEAN Summit, which endorsed the Vision 2045.

Before criticizing the vision, we must recognize Anwar’s pragmatic achievements. The Malaysian chairmanship has delivered 18 Priority Economic Deliverables (PEDs) that could be genuine steppingstones for a united regional economy and has been implementing the ASEAN Year of Skills (AYOS) 2025.

Anwar also brought the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to ASEAN for the first formal interaction between the two blocs. These are praiseworthy accomplishments.

However, pragmatism without an ambitious, principles-based vision will not go far, and the new Vision 2045 will not make ASEAN as relevant as Anwar hopes.

The new blueprint offers laudable goals, promising to turn a detached bloc into a "resilient, innovative, dynamic" and "people-centric" community. There is much emphasis on “strengthening ASEAN’s institutional capacities,” but there is a lack of detail. You can find goals about engaging youths in the decision-making process, but again, no specifics.

The Vision vaguely promises that ASEAN will promote democracy and human rights, yet it is clear these references are mere formalities. There is no real commitment to turning AIPA into a true parliament nor a determination to empower the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR).

How can ASEAN become a people-centric community that values a "shared ASEAN identity", as the Vision proclaims, with a document that contains no goals that would truly excite and energize its citizens?

Perhaps it is unfair to criticize the pragmatic compromises Anwar made to get the Vision 2045 approved, especially when a number of ASEAN member nations are adamantly opposed to any democratic opening. Anwar is a realist, not a magician.

Yet, principles matter if ASEAN leaders truly want to inspire love, admiration and passion for this regional institution among their citizens. These are the only ingredients that can make ASEAN truly people-centric.

Principles also matter in foreign affairs. When daring situations unfold, unity under shared principles is essential. What would happen if the worst-case scenario unfolded in the South China Sea? Where would ASEAN stand? Would the "Chan Chun Sing Doctrine" be applied?

At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke passionately as a European statesman about principles, values, and the importance of moral choices. This was not the approach Anwar took when, just a few weeks ago, he was joking side-by-side with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Anwar describes his approach as “active non-alignment.” Perhaps it should be called “active disillusionment,” because ultimately, you cannot dodge choices indefinitely.

As it is, the so-called ASEAN centrality will, sooner than later, become a self-centered posture that does not reflect reality. ASEAN in 2045 could be profoundly different and better, a real community of people. But without deep, principled changes, will the region's leaders realize they are sleepwalking into irrelevance and creating a dangerous vacuum?

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The writer is a freelance columnist focusing on regional integration in Southeast Asia, human rights and development and democracy.