NasDem chairman Surya Paloh instructed his rank and file to remain loyal to the government’s agenda this week, following reports that he recently spoke with a close ally of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in a meeting overseas amid a perceived falling out between the two leaders.

The NasDem patron himself gave the order, one senior party executive said, after convening lawmakers at the party’s Central Jakarta headquarters on Monday.

“Pak Surya underscored his full support for the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin government until its term finishes and ordered all members of the NasDem [legislative faction] to do the same,” Charles Meikyansah, an member of the party’s central executive board, stated on Monday.

Tensions had reportedly risen between Surya and Jokowi, with the latter hinting several times already at another Cabinet shake-up – an idea that the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has supported.

Several members of the PDI-P elite have called on Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo and Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar, both NasDem card-carrying members, to resign for failing to maintain the country’s self-sufficiency in rice, a staple food.

PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto recently defended the party’s attack on NasDem, accusing it of “acting differently” with regard to the government’s legislative priorities, after receiving reports from colleagues over its shifting stance at the House of Representatives.

Timely intervention

Surya’s reiteration of loyalty to the President was made about a month after a meeting Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Pandjaitan, a close Jokowi ally, in London on Dec. 13, 2022.

A photo of both politicians seated and in conversation was posted by NasDem senior politician and businessman Peter Gontha to his Instagram account recently.

Peter, who appears to have taken part in the meeting in the photo, described the two figures as “true nationalists” who wanted to maintain stability despite having different ideas about who should lead the country.

“Despite having different views on who should succeed President Jokowi, neither of them wants Indonesia to fall into the trap of right- or left-wing extremism. They both uphold Pancasila, not just in words but also in their behavior and their views,” Peter wrote on social media.

“Their approaches are different, but the goal is the same.”

Analysts believe that this conversation was initiated as a means to find common ground amid the perceived fallout between Surya and Jokowi, which was alluded to in talks of election candidates and reshuffle plans.

“The conversation certainly must have been a two-way street in search of a middle ground that could ease tensions between Surya and the [Presidential] Palace. Luhut always appears [to fix things] whenever such political deadlocks arise,” Adi Prayitno, executive director of Parameter Politik Indonesia, said on Tuesday.

‘Won’t crumble’

NasDem’s perceived U-turn has sparked concerns that a recent attempt to establish a third voting bloc could be aborted. However, opposition parties the Democratic Party and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) remained optimistic that their plan to forge a political alliance with Surya’s camp would not be derailed by what one politician describes as an “attempt to thwart” coalition talks amid a stalemate.

Syahrial Nasution, a member of the Democratic Party’s central executive board, said on Tuesday that ongoing negotiations to explore a new coalition “won’t crumble” amid pressure on NasDem to resign from the Cabinet.

“The challenge being faced by one of our prospective coalition partners that news reports peg as soon to be ousted from the Cabinet will not affect ongoing discussions among our small team [of negotiators],” he said.

Meanwhile, PKS spokesman M. Kholid said the party was not fretting over Surya and Luhut’s meeting, dismissing it as an “ordinary get-together”. He stressed that the PKS was still focused on finding common ground with potential partners.

“The PKS will continue efforts to complete the formation of the Coalition for Change,” he said, referring to the would-be voting bloc’s name.

Shifting equation

Surya’s latest instruction calls into question NasDem’s backing of popular Anies, with analysts saying that his potential absence in the race could completely change the coalition map, leaving only Jokowi’s allies to contest it.

“If the Coalition for Change fails, the 2024 election will certainly be less interesting, since there won’t be any opposition figure in the running. You can be sure the contestants are ‘All Jokowi’s Men’. Any axis seeking change inevitably becomes the antithesis to the government camp,” Parameter’s Adi suggested.

Indikator Politik Indonesia researcher Bawono Kumoro suggested that Anies’ failure to secure a presidential ticket could pave the way for other, less-electable and unpopular members of the political elite to contest in 2024.

“Seeing one of their most formidable rivals not contesting in the race may psychologically encourage party elites with mediocre and poor electability – such as [Golkar Party chairman] Airlangga Hartarto and [National Awakening Party chief] Muhaimin Iskandar – to run,” he told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday.

This scenario could also dampen popular Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo’s chances of running for office with an endorsement from the PDI-P, and could pave the way for current House Speaker Puan Maharani to run in spite of being deeply unpopular in public opinion polls.

Without Anies in the picture, the PDI-P would have no reason to nominate Ganjar, the party’s only presidential hopeful who can compete with rivals in electability.

Conversely, Puan will have "a better chance of being paired with [Gerindra Party chairman] Prabowo Subianto – a match that would secure votes in the densely populated regions of West and Central Java", Bawono said.

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