The 2024 presidential election could see four party tickets on the ballot, after the Golkar Party said it planned to set up a new electoral alliance if political parties in the ruling coalition failed to establish a unified alliance against the opposition.

Golkar, along with the National Mandate Party (PAN), has yet to endorse any of the three frontrunners in the electability surveys of several credible pollsters: Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.

Ganjar has been nominated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), with backing from the United Development Party (PPP). Meanwhile, Prabowo is backed by the Gerindra Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB), and Anies has the support of the NasDem Party, the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Golkar, the country’s oldest and second-largest political party, has been in talks with Gerindra and the PKB in an attempt to pair Prabowo with its chairman, Airlangga Hartarto. The protracted negotiation, however, is at risk of collapsing and could end up with a Golkar-PKB spinoff bloc, creating the possibility of a four-horse race next year.

Airlangga-Muhaimin ticket

The party’s newly appointed election campaign committee head, Nusron Wahid, told The Jakarta Post recently that the possible emergence of a fourth electoral bloc between Golkar and the PKB remained open. This would hinge on the ongoing negotiations on forming a “grand coalition” to pair Gerindra nominee Prabowo with an unnamed running mate failing to reach a consensus.

“There is a potential [...] if the party elites of the KIB and the KKIR do not share the same intention to secure a landslide victory,” Nusron said, referring to the Golkar-led United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) and the Gerindra-led Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR).

In this scenario, Golkar and the PKB would pair Airlangga as their presidential nominee, with PKB leader Muhaimin Iskandar as his running mate.

The two politicians have separately announced their presidential and vice presidential bids, but both have made little progress in electability polls.

While the two parties control a large number of seats at the House of Representatives and have a large voter base, Gerindra has shown little interest in either Airlangga or Muhaimin as Prabowo’s potential running mate.

Speculation is rife that more popular, nonparty figures are being vetted as Prabowo’s running mate, including State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Minister Erick Thohir, East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud MD.

Party elites were yet to agree on the presidential-vice presidential composition, Nusron said, while Golkar and the PKB were seeking assurances that the final pairing would benefit them in the legislative election.

‘Keeping hope alive’

Adi Prayitno, a political analyst at Parameter Politik Indonesia, suggested that both Airlangga and Muhamin might be simply trying to elevate their bargaining power in the alliance-building process.

“They may have started to rethink their decision to work with parties that are clearly uninterested in them,” said Adi.

“The coming [competition] is an electoral stage during which party elites are seeking their presidential [nomination], so it is not surprising that Airlangga is trying to keep his hope alive by forging new partnerships with either the PKB or the Democratic Party, or both of them.”

The two party leaders have also intensified lobbying, reaching out to erstwhile allies in the opposition, specifically former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his son and Democratic Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

Agus, meanwhile, has been vying to be Anies’ running mate, but has yet to clinch a nomination.

Muhaimin kicked off his political tour to visit former vice presidents on Saturday with a high-profile visit to senior Golkar politician Jusuf Kalla, who was vice president to Jokowi and Yudhoyono, to seek his advice on ways to form the proposed “grand coalition”.

The PKB leader is also scheduled to meet with other former vice presidents, including Hamzah Haz, Boediono and Try Soetrisno.

“It is very possible that this is an initial discussion to form a political partnership with other party leaders who also share his ambition to run in the upcoming presidential race, but have yet to clinch their [nomination],” Adi said.

Gerindra-PAN alliance?

If the Golkar-PKB alliance materializes, Gerindra will have to forge an alliance with PAN, which has yet to nominate a presidential candidate and has expressed its intention to pair its eventual candidate with SOEs minister Erick.

“If Prabowo still believes that logistical strength is the determining factor to win the upcoming election, he is likely to again pick a running mate who can offer him [this]: Erick,” said Paramadina University political analyst Ahmad Khoirul Umam.

“If Prabowo picks Erick with the Gerindra-PAN alliance behind them, [parties] which have both been loyal partners in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, Golkar and the PKB could potentially form a new political bloc,” Umam said.

Gerindra and PAN collectively control more than 20 percent of House seats, the constitutionally mandated presidential nomination threshold. (ahw)

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