The announcement cannot be separated from the cawe-cawe (interference) of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, whom Megawati often refers to as her party official and therefore duty-bound to support her choice of presidential nominee Central Java Ganjar Pranowo.

In front of Prabowo, Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto, who is also the coordinating economic minister, and PAN chairman Zulkifli Hasan, who is the trade minister, signed an agreement to nominate the Gerindra founder, who is also the defense minister, at an event held at the Proclamation Museum in Central Jakarta.

The signing came exactly a year after Prabowo and the National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar declared a coalition for the 2024 presidential race. Muhaimin has since then insisted that in return Gerindra choose him as Prabowo’s running mate. The four party leaders opted to shelve that matter for the time being.

According to Airlangga, Prabowo is the most "appropriate" leader who can take Indonesia out of the middle-income trap. "The [development] process that the President has started must be continued, and we think that Prabowo is the right figure to do so," Airlangga said after the ceremony.

Prabowo himself is confident President Jokowi will endorse the new coalition, which amalgamates the Gerindra-led Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR) and the Golkar-led United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). The other KIB founder, the United Development Party (PPP), has joined forces with the PDI-P.

"Jokowi is a democratic man. He truly respects the independence of every party. So, I'm sure that he will approve our decision," Prabowo said.

Ties between Jokowi and Megawati have reportedly soured since the latter announced Ganjar’s presidential nomination on April 21. Jokowi was informed of the event at short notice.

Jokowi has for the last few months displayed his proximity, if not intimacy, with his former rival Prabowo, now 71. It was Jokowi who first stated that 2024 would be Prabowo’s turn to lead the country, although several times Jokowi also signaled his preference for Ganjar, evident in his “white hair” quip to describe a leadership quality. Ganjar, 56, is well-known for his mop of gray hair.

Clearly, Jokowi does not want to put all his eggs in one basket and is keen to play a kingmaker role, in order to ensure his legacy, such as his flagship new capital city construction project in East Kalimantan, will remain intact.

Sources said Jokowi originally wanted Prabowo and Ganjar to contest the 2024 race as a team, but neither Megawati nor Prabowo were willing to play second fiddle. Megawati is poised to score a hat trick of legislative and presidential election victories, while Prabowo hopes for a third-time lucky after two straight defeats to Jokowi.

Jokowi’s leaning toward Prabowo will only put the President on a collision course with Megawati, which will be damaging for both of them. The PDI-P may lose the elections as Jokowi supporters will desert the party. On the other hand, Jokowi will lose the chance to lead the party in the post-Megawati era.

The expanding coalition in support of Prabowo’s presidential bid barely affects the PDI-P as it already meets the presidential threshold. But Jokowi’s alleged role behind the new coalition will hurt many in the PDI-P elite.

"We know the President supports Prabowo's nomination, although in public he always says he will only endorse our party's candidate. But we do not think he would take such an extreme move that allowed the two parties to formally endorse Prabowo," said a senior PDI-P official after Saturday's announcement.

Jokowi has denied accusations of orchestrating the move by Golkar and PAN.  “That was each party’s own business. I am not a party leader, I am the President,” Jokowi said.

Prabowo appears to have won Jokowi’s heart not only because he always describes himself as the continuation of Jokowi's development program and platforms. Prabowo has also repeatedly expressed his intention to pick Jokowi’s eldest son, Surakarta Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate.

Gerindra is involved in the judicial review motion filed with the Constitutional Court against Article 5 of Law No. 42/2008 on presidential elections, which sets the minimum age for presidential and vice-presidential aspirants at 40. The plaintiffs demand that the age limit be lowered to 35, which will allow Gibran, who will turn 36 in October, to contest the race.

It looks difficult for the PDI-P to criticize Jokowi, the party’s first member ever to win back-to-back presidential elections, given his high approval rating. One year ahead of the end of his final term, his rating has hit 81.9 percent.

But Jokowi will be playing with fire if he fails to toe the party line in the presidential nomination matter. He must not get overconfident or he may slip and fall in the power struggle against PDI-P matron Megawati.

There is no guarantee either that Prabowo will fulfill his promise to continue Jokowi’s program and platforms if elected. Many of Prabowo's supporters in the 2014 and 2019 elections have not yet forgiven Jokowi for defeating Prabowo. There may well be a time when Prabowo has no choice but to backstab Jokowi for his own survival.

A deepening conflict between Jokowi and Megawati will only benefit other presumptive presidential candidates, especially Prabowo, who is now the frontrunner in a number of surveys. The feud will also adversely impact political stability and the legislation agenda at the House of Representatives, which bodes ill for the country’s bid to withstand the global recession.

The General Elections Commission (KPU) has set the dates for registration of presidential and vice-presidential candidates for Oct. 19 to Nov. 25. The strength of the bond between Jokowi and Megawati will define the prospects of the PDI-P in the simultaneous legislative and presidential elections.

If Jokowi starts the fire now, the question is whether he can control the flames. Jokowi, the PDI-P and Megawati may all get burned in the internal squabbling.

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The writer is senior editor at The Jakarta Post.