P

eople throughout Asia are watching uneasily as the strategic rivalry between America and China deepens. We all know how important the peaceful relations between these great two powers have been to Asia’s remarkable development over the past few decades. And we know how dangerous it will be for Asia if their rivalry keeps growing.

Strong ties of economic interdependence bind the world’s two richest countries together, but very different views of their future roles in Asia drive them apart. America wants to remain the leading power in Asia, while China wants to use its growing power to expand its influence and assert its own leadership. They cannot both be satisfied. Their growing competition for leadership is evident in growing tensions over maritime issues in the Western Pacific. There is a real danger that these tensions could spark a crisis that escalates into war between them.

No issue is more important to Asia’s future than to reduce this danger, and reverse the slide into strategic rivalry between these two immensely powerful states. But what can the rest of us do to about it?

We can start by thinking more carefully about how we would most like to see our region develop. Obviously none of us want Asia to be dominated by China. The best way to prevent that is for the US to remain engaged, to balance China’s power. That means we all want America to stay in Asia as a key strategic player. Indeed we can hardly imagine a stable and secure Asia without America playing a big role.

But what kind of role do we want America to play? Since the Vietnam War, America has been the uncontested leader of Asia. Now America’s position is challenged by China, so the old era of uncontested leadership is gone for good. Most Americans assume that America’s only option is to resist China’s challenge, and try to reassert its leadership despite China’s growing power.

However, this too is a bad outcome for Asia. We do not want to live in a region dominated by strategic rivalry, let alone conflict, between Washington and Beijing. That would devastate our economies and jeopardize our security. And we cannot be sure that America would win.

So can we imagine a third future for Asia? Can we avoid both the dangers of Chinese domination on the one hand, and the risks of US-China rivalry on the other? I think we can, if the US and China find a way to share power in Asia, with China agreeing not to try to exclude America, and America not trying to dominate China. This kind of agreement is called a Concert of Power. At times in history — for example in 19th century Europe — a Concert has kept the peace between major powers and underwritten periods of great prosperity and growth.

Building a Concert of Asia today would be very hard. America and China would both have to abandon their dreams of leading Asia in the Asian century, and treat one another as equals. They would also have to find a place for Asia’s other great powers, India and Japan. All this would require great statesmanship and political courage — the kind of leadership that Nixon and Mao both showed when they remade China-America relations 40 years ago.

Many in America and among America’s friends would denounce any accommodation of China as appeasement. There is a risk that China would not be satisfied with sharing power, and would try to grab for more. But we can manage that risk by making it clear that if China breaks the Concert it would be met by concerted and steadfast resistance from the rest of us. And the cost of refusing to accommodate China’s power in any way is escalating rivalry and quite possibly war. There might be no choice but to run some risks to avoid that.

There are other risks, too. Many in Asia would be uneasy at the idea of the US and China running the region between them. It would be all too easy for the interests of others to be squeezed by the two strongest powers working together. The old joke is that whether the elephants fight or make love, the ants still get squashed. But in reality the ants get squashed much flatter if they fight. If we have to make a choice — and I think we do — we’d be wise to hope that they make love instead.

So what can Asia’s smaller and middle powers do to minimize the risks of great-power rivalry and conflict? None of us singly can do much to influence either Washington or Beijing on such momentous issues. But if the rest of us all want the same outcome — and I think we do — then by acting together surely we can help leaders in both Washington and Beijing see that their own best interests, as well as ours, require them to accommodate one another in a new Concert of Asia.

And we need to move fast, because time is not on our side. Already the rhythm of rivalry is quickening in Asia. The longer it takes for the two big powers to start talking about a shared future in Asia, the tougher the talk will be. This year’s Asian summits provide a perfect opportunity to start building a regional consensus about Asia’s future. It is hard to imagine anything more important could be on the agenda.

The writer is professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University (Canberra) and a visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute (Sydney). He has served at the Australian Department of Defense in charge of strategic planning.