T

he official outcome of Wednesday’s Jakarta gubernatorial election will be announced in just over a week, but quick counts by various pollsters were unanimous in the conclusion that the incumbent, Fauzi Bowo, was humiliated on his home turf by out-of-towner Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

Surakarta mayor Jokowi proved pre-election surveys wrong by winning 42 percent of the votes, just 8 percent shy of avoiding a runoff. Jokowi headed the pack of six runners, with red-hot favorite Fauzi trailing second by a 9 point margin.

Jokowi’s upper-hand was consistent across all five mayoralties of the city, showing wide-ranging support for the challenger, running under the banners of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).

Apart from the surprise outcome, the peacefully conducted election confirmed the maturity of Jakarta voters, who will now gear up for the runoff. Such a trouble-free election is crucial given Jakarta’s status as the capital city.

There were undoubtedly glitches in the administration of the ballot, but none of the candidates have strong grounds to dispute the result, which the Jakarta electoral commission will make public on July 19 or 20.

Analysts believe Jokowi gathered the support of undecided voters, which many pollsters had failed — deliberately or otherwise — to account for when they predicted Fauzi’s easy win.

A combination of Jokowi’s popularity, Jakartans’ demands for change and the declining image of the ruling Democratic Party — the back-bone of Fauzi’s support — is the supposed explanation of the first-round result.

What differentiates Fauzi and Jokowi in the eyes of voters is possibly their personalities. Jokowi is well-known for his low profile, pro-people policies and proven track record: Fauzi is seen as an elitist, as evinced by his failure to attend the public debates.

Jokowi’s full support for the student-made car, Esemka, received widespread media coverage and to some extent helped him build his image.

As the incumbent, Fauzi carried an extremely heavy burden that had made him easy prey to criticism, particularly with reference to campaign promises made in 2007 which he remains unable to deliver.

The unexpected outcome does not mean anything, however, except that Jokowi, Fauzi and their respective running mates and supporters will square off in the second round scheduled for Sept. 20.

The runoff will be a completely different ball game for Jokowi and Fauzi, who need to woo both those who voted against them on Wednesday, and the huge number of people who gave the election a miss. Voter turnout was about 63 percent of nearly 7 million eligible voters, not much changed from the 2007 election.

In the next two months both Jokowi and Fauzi will be busy courting political elites, formal and informal leaders and other parties to help them win a simple majority of the vote.

Political approaches that lead to coalition deals are common at this stage of the game and anything may happen before a governor is finally elected.

The first stage of the Jakarta election was an arena for Jokowi to perform his magic. Now Fauzi needs to show some tricks of his own.