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urakarta Mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo stands a greater chance of winning the gubernatorial election runoff over incumbent Governor Fauzi Bowo, according to recent surveys by various pollsters.

The most recent one, released on Sunday by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), predicted that the Sept. 20 runoff would be a close race between the two candidates, with the Jokowi lead over Fauzi small.

The survey, conducted in cooperation with Tempo magazine between Sept. 2 and Sept. 7, involved 339 respondents with a 5 percent margin of error.

The survey found that 45.6 percent of respondents would vote for Jokowi and his running mate Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, with Fauzi and Nachrowi Ramli getting 44.7 percent.

LSI executive director Kuskridho Ambardhi said the poll asked multiple questions to measure the reliability of the result and to check whether the respondents were familiar with the candidates or not.

“The discrepancy turned out to be insignificant. Therefore, the result was reliable,” he said.

The survey also found that the main factor driving voters decisions was the satisfaction level of the incumbent’s performance, not his ethnicity or religion.

“While ethnicity and religion still somewhat affect voter decisions, their effects are apparently not as large as expected,” said Dodi. “It’s because most Jakartans are secular when it comes to politics, even though the majority of them are of the Muslim faith.”

The survey said that the 82 percent who were very satisfied with Fauzi’s performance would vote for him in the runoff, while only 9 percent preferred Jokowi as the next governor.

On the other side, 88 percent of dissatisfied respondents chose Jokowi, compared to only 12 percent who chose otherwise.

Likewise, the survey showed that those viewing the economy as much improved tended to vote for Fauzi, with 84 percent of respondents choosing him. Meanwhile, 35 percent of respondents thinking otherwise said that they would vote for Jokowi.

Another survey, released by the Soegeng Sarjadi School of Government (SSSG) on Friday, said that Jokowi was leading with 36.74 percent of those surveyed, while Fauzi trailed with 29.47 percent.

Approaching the runoff, both candidates have had the chance to campaign for three days, running from last Friday until Sunday.

On the campaign’s last day, Fauzi and Jokowi squared off at the Hotel Indonesia traffic circle, with the former’s campaign filled with various performances such as breakdance and barongsai (Chinese lion dance) and the latter’s featuring a flash mob performed by hundreds of people wearing checkered shirts.

They were dancing to the parody of One Direction’s “What Makes You Beautiful”, the lyrics of which had been altered to show how Jakartans need Jokowi to solve the city’s myriad problems.

The campaign period ended on Sunday night with a televised debate. Things became heated when each candidate had the opportunity to ask their opponents one question. Fauzi and Nachrowi questioned Jokowi and Ahok’s decisions to move from their respective hometowns of Surakarta and East Belitung, where Ahok used to serve as a regent, to serve as officials in Jakarta. Nachrowi began his question by addressing Ahok in a stereotypical Chinese-Indonesian accent, complete with a hand gesture to his eyes to portray slanted eyes.

Jokowi and Ahok, meanwhile, decided to question the incumbents on the lack of progress in the city’s mass transportation modes.

The candidates were also asked about their rivals’ positive qualities. “Fauzi likes to plan things without executing them. That’s his good quality. At least he makes plans,” Jokowi said. (han)