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Moody's maintains positive outlook on Philippine banking system
Moody's Investors Service says that it is maintaining its positive outlook on the Philippine banking system for the next 12 to 18 months, as it has been since December 2012
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oody's Investors Service says that it is maintaining its positive outlook on the Philippine banking system for the next 12 to 18 months, as it has been since December 2012.
'The positive outlook is in line with our expectation that gross domestic product [GDP] growth in the Philippines will remain one of the strongest among emerging-market economies over the next 12 to 18 months," Simon Chen, a Moody's assistant vice president and analyst, said in an official release Monday.
"In that context, credit growth is likely to be in the range of 13 percent to 15 percent on an annual basis, while asset quality will be supported by the robust economy and relatively low retail credit penetration.'
Moody's conclusions were contained in its just-released "Banking System Outlook: Philippines". The report says that the positive outlook for the banking system is based on an assessment of five factors: operating environment - positive; asset quality and capital - stable; funding and liquidity - stable; profitability and efficiency - stable; and systemic support -- positive.
The report points out that the Philippine government's preliminary forecast after the powerful Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines' Eastern Visayas region early last month, is that the storm should lower GDP growth this year by 0.3-0.8 percentage point. In contrast, the country's GDP rose 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2013.
Moody's report also says the system's level of non-performing assets should remain stable, after dramatic improvements in recent years, while provision coverage continues to rise.
In addition, despite strong loan growth in recent years, household indebtedness and corporate leverage remain low, with total system credit to GDP at about 40 percent, and on a slightly declining trend.
