I

ndonesia today will hold the fourth general election since the end of the Soeharto dictatorship in 1998, but whether this will be another milestone in the march toward democracy, is very much in the hands of voters.

The nation can take pride that 16 years of reform has brought both democracy and development, a rare feat globally where the general rule has been that you can have one but not the other.

However, there is every reason to be cautious. The ride to democracy may not be as smooth as it has been and there may even be trouble ahead.

Looking at Egypt and Thailand, where their democratic experiences have turned horribly wrong, we can no longer take for granted that this year'€™s election in Indonesia will be an improvement on 2009.

One valuable lesson from these two countries is that democracy does not necessarily lead to the right leaders and that putting the wrong leaders in charge could be disastrous.

The 2014 elections will be a political turning point for Indonesia, but whether for the better or for the worse depends on who we put in charge.

Indonesia will either consolidate its democracy or we could see the beginning of the end of our democracy. We have some of the ingredients that brought down democracy in Egypt and Thailand.

Today, the nation will elect their representatives in the 560-seat House of Representatives (DPR), the 132-seat Regional Representatives Council (DPD) and the hundreds of local legislatures (DPRDs).

More important than choosing their representatives, today'€™s election will also determine which major national parties qualify to nominate candidates for the presidential election in July.

Parties that win 25 percent of the popular vote or 20 percent of the seats in the DPR will have the right to nominate the presidential-vice presidential candidates. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) may make the cut according to many opinion polls, while other parties will have to pool their votes and form a coalition to join
the race.

Come October, Indonesia will have a new set of leaders in the legislative and executive branches.

This begs the question: Are we choosing the right people?

Public apathy toward the election amid concerns of a turnout lower than the 71 percent in 2009, and the less than enthusiastic public participation in the campaigns, are signs that the people are losing interest, not so much in their future, but more in the way elections are run by political parties.

Indonesia'€™s general elections have now been reduced to the formality of going through the motions. They are about forms and colors but are devoid of real substance and choice.

We are back to the '€œFiesta of Democracy'€ of the Soeharto years, when noisy and colorful elections were simply held to endorse those in power. The difference is that now we have a few more parties, but almost all of them are run by political oligarchs who have hijacked the political system.

You may as well call these parties by the name of their bosses. The Golkar Party is Aburizal Bakrie'€™s party; the Democratic Party is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono'€™s; the Gerindra Party is Prabowo Subianto'€™s; the PDI-P is Megawati Soekarnoputri'€™s; and even the smaller ones are privately owned: The Nasdem Party is Surya Paloh'€™s party and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) is Yusril Ihza Mahendra'€™s.

Just like in Soeharto'€™s days, major media outlets have become the cheerleaders for these oligarchs. One early sign of trouble for a nascent democracy is when the media loses its freedom and independence.

Indonesia'€™s democracy has already made a turn for the worse these last five years, witnessed by the performance of President Yudhoyono and his corruption-ridden administration and a House that is equally corrupt, if not more.

We took political stagnation for political stability and we seem to have been buoyed by our limited economic successes. Rather than consolidating the gains of reforms, we are squandering them.

The last five years have been a case of missed great opportunities, and worse still, we may have been planting the seeds of chaos for the coming years.

The democracy dance of '€œtwo steps forward and one step back'€ of the early years of reform can turn into '€œtwo steps back and one step forward'€.

This is not a cause for pessimism but more a call for greater reality checks as the nation enters a crucial phase in the march toward democracy.

The elections are the only time when people can exercise their sovereignty rights in a political system controlled by a handful of parties. They should use this opportunity to ensure that we put the right leaders in place and not give a carte blanche to the political oligarchs in running the country to serve their own personal and family interests.

We are already seeing some encouraging movements at the grassroots level that sent the clear message that the people are not taking this lying down.

The nomination of Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo as the PDI-P presidential candidate reflects the will of the people as it was virtually imposed on reluctant party chair Megawati who had to forego her own ambitions to run.

Jokowi is not associated with either the party or the oligarch, making him a popular candidate of the people. He'€™s now the runaway frontrunner in the July presidential race.

The rise of social media has also helped to circumvent or minimize the role of the mainstream media, which are already co-opted by the oligarchs.

There is still hope for Indonesia'€™s democracy. Today, this will all be in the hands of the people.

The writer is senior editor of The Jakarta Post.