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Jokowi ahead, but with slight margin
Two public opinion polls released on Monday suggested that presidential candidate Joko âJokowiâ Widodo could win Wednesdayâs presidential election, albeit with a tight margin
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Two public opinion polls released on Monday suggested that presidential candidate Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo could win Wednesday's presidential election, albeit with a tight margin.
A nationwide survey conducted by the Jakarta-based pollster Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), which is run by Denny Januar Ali, found Jokowi and running mate Jusuf Kalla's popularity stood at 47.8 percent.
The figure was 3.6 percent higher than rival Prabowo Subianto, whose popularity stood at 44.2 percent. Undecided voters were estimated at 8 percent. The survey was carried out between July 2 and July 5.
LSI's previous survey conducted in June indicated a gap of 0.5 percent, still in favor of Jokowi. There were no figures made available to evaluate undecided voters in the previous survey.
The LSI attributed Jokowi's popularity rebound to the intensive direct campaigning that has targeted grass-root and middle-class voters.
'Our qualitative analysis found that the door-to-door campaigns conducted by Jokowi volunteers has successfully fired up the grass roots,' said LSI researcher Fitri Hari.
'Intensive social media endorsement from public figures and celebrities known for their integrity has also lured middle-class voters.'
Fitri, however, said Jokowi could potentially lose in the upcoming election due to the relatively high number of undecided voters and 'unanticipated and extraordinary political maneuvers' by his opponents.
'Around 8 percent of respondents are still undecided about who to vote for. This is higher than the electability margin between the two candidates,' she said.
Another survey held by PolMark Indonesia from June 24 to June 28 found Jokowi's popularity rating to be 44.6 percent, or 3.6 percent higher than Prabowo's 41 percent.
The survey also found that 68.5 percent of respondents said they were not affected by the smear campaigns painting Jokowi as a Christian of Chinese descent.
'Such a finding was a relief since it underlined that smear campaigns do not have a future in our democracy,' PolMark CEO and founder Eep Saefulloh Fatah said.
The LSI and PolMark questioned 2,400 and 2,600 respondents, respectively, in their surveys.
The margin of error in the LSI's survey is 2 percent while PolMark's is 1.9 percent.
Commenting on the LSI and PolMark surveys, Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician Eriko Sotarduga, also a member of Jokowi's campaign team, said he was optimistic that the pair could win the election by up to a 10-percent margin.
'The two surveys were held before the final presidential debate and the end of the open campaign period on July 5. We believe our volunteers' door-to-door campaign, combined with the Jokowi performance during the debate, have attracted more voters,' he said
