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Pressure on Asia sovereign ratings weakens, says Fitch

Positive pressure on ratings is ebbing, following a run of upgrades since 2011, with Vietnam the latest, in which the country was raised to BB-/Stable on Nov

The Jakarta Post
Jakarta
Mon, January 12, 2015 Published on Jan. 12, 2015 Published on 2015-01-12T15:34:06+07:00

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ositive pressure on ratings is ebbing, following a run of upgrades since 2011, with Vietnam the latest, in which the country was raised to BB-/Stable on Nov.3, 2014, says Fitch Ratings in its latest outlook.

Fitch says in its 2015 Outlook for Emerging Asian Sovereigns that eight of 10 emerging Asian sovereigns have a stable outlook, with two, namely Malaysia and Mongolia, having a negative outlook. A deeper look at the credit profiles using Fitch Ratings'€™ four main categories for analysis reveals marginally more negative than positive momentum, it adds.

'€œMarket volatility in December 2014 could be a foretaste of what is to come in 2015 as the US Federal Reserve moves toward raising interest rates while other major central banks may ease policies further,'€ said Fitch in a release made available to The Jakarta Post on Monday.

'€œIt was striking that the emerging Asian markets should have been caught up in turbulence coming from Russia, as the region'€™s direct links with Russia are few. These events show that emerging Asia remains vulnerable to contagion from events elsewhere,'€ it further said.

Nonetheless, the rating firm said it expected real gross domestic product (GDP) in emerging Asia, excluding China, to expand by about 6 percent in 2015 and 2016, remaining the world'€™s fastest-growing region.

'€œWe forecast China'€™s GDP to expand at 6.8 percent in 2015 and 6.5 percent in 2016, as the government'€™s bid to rebalance the economy is worked through. Lower oil prices and faster growth in advanced economies support most emerging Asian countries, including China,'€ said Fitch. (ebf)(++++)

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