Megawati Soekarnoputri will probably not be facing any opposition at next week'€™s congress for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), but she has to accommodate a growing consensus in her party that she should share power with younger members of the party during her next five-year term.

A study by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows that the daughter of first president Sukarno would not be able to obtain absolute support from local chapter leaders, unlike she had in the past. The study concluded that 31.5 percent of the 467 PDI-P chapter leaders would prefer a new leader, suggesting that Megawati will not win by acclamation, or support from every leader.

'€œThis means the PDI-P is currently far from the former acclamation of Megawati'€™s leadership that was issued during the party'€™s National Leadership Meeting in September 2014 in Semarang, Central Java,'€ CSIS researcher Philips J. Vermonte said in a press conference on Wednesday.

Megawati was an opposition icon during Soeharto'€™s rule up until his fall in 1998. One year later, in 1999, the PDI-P won the legislative elections. But at that time Megawati was only able to become the deputy of Abdurrahman '€œGus Dur'€ Wahid, who was elected as the country'€™s fourth president during the October elections of 1999. Megawati replaced Gus Dur in 2001 after he was impeached and served until 2004. Following her brief stint as president, Megawati lost two direct presidential elections to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2004 and 2009.

For the 2014 presidential race, the PDI-P nominated then Jakarta governor Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo, who won against Prabowo Subianto.

After he won, many PDI-P members were angry when Megawati openly attempted to control the Jokowi administration, including her shenanigans surrounding the appointment of the new National Police chief.

'€œAround 147 branch party leaders have the gall to be openly unsupportive of Megawati as a chairperson candidate. This openness is quite surprising,'€ Philips said, offering an interpretation of the CSIS report.

The CSIS interviewed 467 regional PDI-P leaders who reported their preference from a list of five possible candidates: Megawati, Megawati'€™s daughter Puan Maharani, Jokowi, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Home Minister Tjahjo Kumolo and legislator Pramono Anung.

Megawati was chosen by 320 of the respondents, while the other potential candidates received 25, 76, 14 and 11 votes, respectively. Five respondents mentioned names not included on the list and 16 others did not state any preference.

When they were asked about the potential of leaders, Jokowi was most highly rated. '€œJokowi got the highest index of 26.6 percent, followed by Puan Maharani at 22.8 percent, Megawati at 15 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 9.1 percent and Tjahjo Kumolo 8.9 percent,'€ said Arya Fernandes, another CSIS researcher.

When asked about whether or not the party should always be led by a member of the Sukarno clan, the respondents were almost evenly split: 51.2 percent supported rule by a member of the Sukarno family while the other 48.8 percent said otherwise.

Last month, Poltracking Indonesia conducted a similar study that concluded that within the party, Jokowi was much more popular than both Megawati and Puan.

During the press conference, PDI-P members Andreas Pareira and Maruarar Sirait, who spoke in a panel discussion, questioned the results of the study.

'€œWhich leaders? When the survey was conducted, the PDI-P was still holding its branch conferences for leadership selection,'€ Andreas said.

Maruarar also disagreed with the conclusions of the study. '€œThe PDI-P is the only party that won two elections and it was because Megawati was in charge of our party.'€ (saf)

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