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refer to an article titled '€œJokowi shores up market confidence amid growing concerns'€, (The Jakarta Post, April 8, p1).

 The fact is, unless the President makes a total mess of things, the Indonesian economy is going to grow at 5 to 6 percent. ASEAN is the top region for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world after the US.  For the last two years it has beaten China. Outside of Singapore, all ASEAN countries have serious problems.

Is it because they are better than say India? It is because of their proximity to China and those supply chains that they are getting investments. It is basically picking from a bad lot '€” the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

What is happening in ASEAN is like what happened in Southern Europe during the 1960-70s. Did Southern Europe deserve the high growth and rising incomes that occurred during that period, most likely not?  

It'€™s the same in ASEAN.  Indonesia got as much FDI as India last year. Vietnam got about half of India'€™s FDI. This surge in FDI is reflected in the increasing percentage of investments as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in Indonesia.

East Asian companies are moving factories to Indonesia and the Philippines because they have the healthiest long-term demographics in East Asia and Southeast Asia when compared to other large countries.

Even Vietnam and Myanmar have fertility rates under 2.1. Thailand, China, South Korea and Japan all have fertility rates under 1.5. Indonesia'€™s workforce isn'€™t expected to decline until 2055.

Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia all have their share of unsound policies, and when investors choose where they are going to invest in Southeast Asia it'€™s a choice between ugly sisters.

Weilim
Jakarta