A few weeks ago, a debate occurred on social media. A supporter of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono blamed President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo for Indonesia'€™s weakening economy. Brimming with confidence, the SBY supporter said that the economy had grown handsomely during his two-term presidency.

Is it true that SBY'€™s economic performance was better than Jokowi'€™s?

First of all, one can succeed by sheer luck. Luck means that external factors mostly determine success. It is just about being in the right time at the right place regardless of efforts or ability.

In terms of the economy, SBY took office at the right time. It was at a time when China'€™s economic rise reached its peak. China voraciously gobbled up commodities, including coal and crude palm oil (CPO), benefitting Indonesia as the world'€™s biggest exporter of the two products. This commodities export-led economy created a trickle-down effect, resulting in significant economic growth. Hence, SBY was lucky to get external key economic drivers without creating genuine initiatives.

The dependence of Indonesia'€™s economy on coal and CPO exports and China'€™s economy backfired at the end of SBY'€™s second term. When Indonesia'€™s economy was stuttering because of China'€™s slowdown, a lucky SBY completed his term and left the unfortunate situation to Jokowi.

So, SBY was definitely not better than Jokowi; he was just lucky. SBY was not alone. Former presidents Sukarno and Soeharto were lucky as well at certain periods during their long reigns.

Under Sukarno, Indonesia enjoyed an economic boom from skyrocketing rubber and tin exports that followed the Korean War in 1950. The country was able to begin development with the founding of shipping company PT Pelni and airline Garuda Indonesia to name a few.

Later, Sukarno fell from grace amid economic and political crises. History repeated itself under Soeharto. The oil boom that followed the Arab-Israel War in 1973 earned Indonesia windfall profits from oil exports, which Soeharto used to realize rice sufficiency and industrialization. When oil prices fell in 1998, Soeharto stepped down.

The lesson learned is the price of commodities '€” the external factor '€” have heavily influenced the performance of the Indonesian presidency. It can boost the economy, but the success is fragile and unsustainable. I hope Jokowi takes a different path.

It would be better he created key economic drivers through the internal aspect that he commands. Developing much-needed infrastructure, the agricultural and livestock industries to substitute imports, fishery and forestry-based industries, tourism, etc. is an opportunity that Jokowi has in hand.

Erwin Wirawan
Jakarta

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