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Jakarta Post

IDX to cut transaction target on falling index

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is to lower its targets for average daily transaction value and new companies entering the bourse this year in light of the unfavorable macroeconomic conditions

Anggi M. Lubis (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Mon, September 28, 2015

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IDX to cut transaction target on falling index

T

he Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is to lower its targets for average daily transaction value and new companies entering the bourse this year in light of the unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.

The rupiah'€™s volatility against the US dollar has also hit the composite index hard.

Hamdi Hassyarbaini, a director of the IDX, confirmed the bourse would next month cut this year'€™s daily transaction target, which is currently set at Rp 7 trillion in the bourse'€™s Annual Work and Budget Plan (RKAT).

'€œGiven the current index movement, we will probably revise our average daily transaction [target] to Rp 6 trillion,'€ Hamdi said.

It will be the second straight year that the IDX has been forced to lower its target.

'€œThese last two years, the market has been unpredictable. We usually draft the RKAT in June, relying on the government'€™s macro assumptions. However, reality has not matched the initial predictions,'€ Hamdi explained.

Average daily transactions reflect the appetite for investment in the stock market. As of Friday, average daily transaction value throughout the year stood at Rp 5.81 trillion, compared with Rp 6.06 trillion at the end of last year. Friday'€™s daily transactions totalled Rp 4.91 trillion.

Hamdi'€™s statement followed an announcement from after a number of IDX officials, including president director Tito Sulistio, that the stock market would welcome around 20 new listed companies this year. The announcement signals an end to hopes of wrapping up the year with more than 30 debutants, as initially targeted in the RKAT.

The 2015 RKAT was formulated based on macro economic assumptions including economic growth between 5.4 and 5.7 percent and a rupiah value of 12,000 per dollar, according to the bourse'€™s documentation.

The rupiah has just completed its steepest weekly drop in almost two years amid a worsening growth outlook for Indonesia and signs the US will raise interest rates in 2015.

The currency reached 14,710 per dollar earlier on Friday, the weakest level since July 1998 and down 9.2 percent this quarter in the worst performance in Asia after Malaysia'€™s ringgit, according to Bloomberg.

Price benchmark the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has lost nearly 19 percent of its value year-to-date, slipping below the psychological threshold of 5,000 and hovering just above the 4,000 threshold. In the past week alone, the price gauge lost 3.9 percent in a four-day straight decline.

The weak rupiah, Hamdi said, was among the factors weighing on the index, especially given that many listed companies were exposed to the dollar because of their foreign-denominated debts, thus impacting their fundamentals.

The IDX'€™s market capitalization has slumped by around 16 percent to Rp 4.39 quadrillion to date, from Rp 5.23 quadrillion at the end of 2014. Foreign net sell stood at Rp 12 trillion on Friday, versus a peak net purchase of Rp 15 trillion early in the second quarter.

University of Indonesia stock market expert Budi Frensidy said that the IDX had been too optimistic in its work plan, failing to take global sentiment into account.

Currency performance and global sentiment, he said, were vital in defining transaction targets, given that foreign investors accounted for around 60 percent of floated shares.

While in reality it might be impossible to achieve even the revised target, Budi said, it would motivate the bourse to work harder in bringing in new investors and companies, instead of having to lower its targets once more.

'€œBearish trends will possibly continue into the first half of next year on currency concerns, so it will be more realistic for the bourse to maintain the Rp 6 trillion target for next year,'€ Budi said.
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