O

em>Oman, a country in the southeastern corner of the Arabian peninsula, holds a strategically important position at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. It is bordered by the United Arab Emirates to the northwest, Saudi Arabia to the west and Yemen to the southwest, and shares maritime borders with Iran and Pakistan. The country, essentially an absolute monarchy, held the eighth election of its Shura (advisory) Council on Oct. 25. The Jakarta Post'€™s Imanuddin Razak was among 80 journalists from across the world invited to witness the organization of the four-yearly political event '€” an experiment with democracy in the wake of the Arab Spring that began in 2011.

All began in 2011, when Omanis staged a series of protests in the Persian Gulf nation, conclusively part of the socio-political revolutionary wave popularly known as the Arab Spring '€” democratic uprisings that arose and spread across the Arab world over the course of a single year. The protesters demanded salary increases, lower cost of living, the creation of more jobs and a reduction in corruption. They also wanted freedom of expression, less government control over the media, political reforms, better living conditions, abolition of taxes and the trial of all ministers.

In view of the emergency situation, Oman'€™s supreme ruler Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said immediately cancelled his plan to visit to India; he then took a number of drastic measures and issued policies that were aimed at calming the protesters. The sultan then reshuffled his Cabinet, reviewed the civil servants'€™ remuneration and pension fund system, provided allowances for university students and increased living cost allowances for government employees and military and security personnel.

The sultan, however, has continued to maintain control over three key and strategic state areas '€” foreign affairs, domestic security and the military. He has also maintained policies that have kept Oman out of the current unrest in the Middle East and seen the country lauded as a regional mediator.

His most significant political decision, however, was to grant the Shura Council more powers in the legislation and the right to call government ministers for questioning, as well as to elect its own chairman. Under the reform package the sultan introduced in 2011, the council, which was founded in 1991 as an advisory body, was given the authority to approve or suggest changes to draft laws, though the ultimate authority will rest overwhelmingly with the sultan himself.

It was the same spirit and expectation for reform that marked the organization of the eighth Shura Council elections this year, although statistics showed the contrary. Of the 525,785 registered voters, 56.6 percent cast their ballots on the voting day on Sunday, Oct. 25. This was a significant decrease from the 2011 election, which saw 76 percent turnout.

There has been no official explanation as yet of the decrease in voter participation this year. One thing is certain - the election was held on a Sunday, which is a working day in Oman. Based on field observation, however, there were cases of voters who were denied participation for various reasons, including failure to bring along updated identity cards, a prerequisite to cast votes in the election.

This year'€™s election saw 590 candidates, including 20 women, competing for the council'€™s 85 seats. This was also a decrease from the previous election, which saw 1,133 candidates, including 77 women.

The election took place amid persisting questions surrounding the health of the 74-year-old Sultan Qaboos, who has ruled the country for more than four decades and apparently has no designated heir. The Sultan returned home in March after months of treatment abroad for an unspecified ailment.

The election was also held at a time when slumping oil prices are straining the country'€™s finances and civil war is raging in neighboring Yemen.

In January this year, when Oman'€™s Finance Ministry presented the budget, it was based on an estimated subsidy bill of 1.8 billion Omani rials. But a recent study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals that the actual subsidy bill in Oman is likely to touch 2.8 billion rials, far above the government'€™s initial estimate. The situation is likely to deteriorate in coming years, and with the neighboring UAE deciding to lift fuel subsidies recently, there is additional pressure on the Oman government to take tough measures.

The Omani authorities have for the last few years been considering withdrawing subsidies, particularly fuel subsidies, but no decision has been made so far, with fears of a strong reaction from consumers and implications for the poorest sections of society.

Oman'€™s total revenue for 2015 is estimated to be around 11.6 billion rials, while total expenditure for the year stood at around 14.1 billion rials, implying a deficit of around 2.5 billion rials for the current year. Of the total expenditure of 14.1 billion rials, subsidies account for around 8 percent, according to budget estimates.

The estimates were calculated based on the expectation that oil prices will remain at US$75 per barrel. But so far this current year, oil prices have been averaging around $60 per barrel, thus putting extra pressure on the government to limit its expenditure.

The fall of crude prices since the middle of last year has cut the government'€™s earnings from hydrocarbons by over 36 percent in the first eight months of this year to 2.4 billion rials from around 3.8 billion rials in the same period last year, according to data from the Omani National Center for Statistics and Information.

This has put serious pressure on Oman'€™s finances, as the country has limited hydrocarbon resources compared with its wealthier neighbors, and it has been pumping huge sums of money into infrastructure development to boost economic activity in the sultanate as a part of its plan to diversify the economy to non-oil sectors. In the first eight months of the current financial year, the government swung to a budget deficit of 1.9 billion rials from a surplus of 250 million rials in the same period last year.

Analysts have been predicting that the removal of sanctions against Iran, which will likely result in additional oil supplies to the global market, and the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve could further worsen the situation for Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A World Bank report in August 2015 stated that Iran'€™s full return to the global market would eventually add about a million barrels of oil a day, lowering oil prices by $10 per barrel next year; Oman, with its limited resources, seems in this respect to be the region'€™s most vulnerable country.

Despite global economic challenges and failing security in neighboring Yemen, this year'€™s Shura Council elections were held peacefully and constituted a considerable democratic success for Oman.

Oman has its own political system and traditions, with a unique election mechanism that allows public representation and checks and balances in a way that may seem far from democratic if viewed through a Western paradigm. But, its leaders '€” particularly the sultan '€” must have had their own reasons for not completely opening the faucet of democracy '€” such as the need to maintain the country'€™s political and territorial integrity.

After all, can a nation with no territory, even if it has a government and a people, truly be called a nation?
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