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In latest survey, Ahok still leading, but insecure
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Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja “Ahok” Purnama (second left) looks amused as Hasto Kristiyanto (left), the secretary-general of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Jakarta Deputy Governor Djarot Saiful Hidayat sign political documents in Jakarta on Sept. 20 regarding Ahok running for a second gubernatorial term. Ahok and Djarot have been officially named as the party’s candidate pair for the upcoming Jakarta gubernatorial election. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)
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ncumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama and his deputy, Djarot Saiful Hidayat, still lead the polls for next year’s gubernatorial election, but the gap is narrowing.
An opinion poll by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), has found that the candidate pair’s lead over their strongest contenders is now about 10 percent.
In the survey published on Tuesday, the Ahok-Djarot ticket achieves an electability rating of 31.4 percent, while the Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno ticket gets 21.1 percent, followed closely by the Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni duo with 19.3 percent.
“The figures show that the incumbents’ position is not secure, because the gap is less than 20 [percentage points]. Based on our experience, an incumbent’s position is secure if the difference is above 20 [percentage points],” LSI senior researcher Adjie Alfaraby was reported as saying by kompas.com.
The survey found that 28.2 percent of voters were still not sure whom to vote for, which could change the position of each candidate pair in the future. “That means there is no a strong or weak pair yet,” said Adjie, adding that the survey was conducted between Sept. 26 and 30 and involved 440 respondents.
The survey, conducted through face-to-face interviews, has a margin of error of 4.8 percent.
Adjie said that in a survey in March, Ahok’s electability stood at 59.3 percent, while in a survey in July it had dropped to 49.1 percent.
Adjie pointed to four causes of Ahok declining popularity: his policy on evictions and land reclamation, his temperament, his personal background in terms of race and religion and finally the emergency of alternative candidate pairs. (bbn)
