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Close race predicted in Jakarta
With less than three months until 7 million Jakartans go to the polls, a recent study finds that almost one-third of voters are still undecided on who to vote for in the much anticipated gubernatorial election that is predicted to be a close race
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With less than three months until 7 million Jakartans go to the polls, a recent study finds that almost one-third of voters are still undecided on who to vote for in the much anticipated gubernatorial election that is predicted to be a close race.
According to a survey by Jakarta-based Poltracking Indonesia, which was released on Sunday, undecided voters still constituted 29.66 percent of the electorate.
As many as 27.92 percent of the 1,200 respondents, meanwhile, said they would vote for the Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni pair, ahead of incumbent duo Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama-Djarot Syaiful Hidayat who received 22 percent of respondents’ support. The third pairing, Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno, was favored by 20.42 percent of respondents.
The outcome of Feb. 15 — voting day — should continue to be a surprise to many as more than 25 percent of respondents said their decision could still change up until voting, while 8.9 percent believed they would reach a final decision a week before the election.
While the study found that 89 percent of respondents said they would vote, there were past precedents that suggested the number of non-voters could be higher than the votes garnered by the winner.
In 2012 Jakarta gubernatorial election, for instance, non-voters reached 2.5 million, making up 54 percent of the registered voters while the winning candidate pair at the time, the Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Ahok ticket, received just 2.47 million votes.
Poltracking executive director Hanta Yudha said the large number of undecided voters currently made it impossible to predict the election winner.
“If we look at this survey, of course Agus is currently the frontrunner. However, the truth is that anything can still happen,” he told reporters.
According to the study, the largest voter age group was made up of 29 to 40-year-olds, while Agus’ electability was apparent among first-time voters (those 17 to 22 years old) as 36.51 percent of respondents in this category said they would vote for him.
The survey has added to the list of polls suggesting a major drop in the Ahok-Djarot pair’s electability following the ongoing furor among Islamic groups centering on Ahok’s blasphemy allegation.
According to Poltracking’s studies, Ahok-Djarot’s electability dropped to 25.75 percent in November from 37.9 percent in September.
Ahok-Djarot campaign team member Ansy Lema said the survey’s finding was not surprising as it was conducted only days after the mass demonstration on Nov. 4, which demanded the police charge Ahok with blasphemy.
“The undecided voters are still waiting for the end of this case. If the court declares Ahok not guilty, they will vote for him,” he told The Jakarta Post.
Meanwhile, Agus’ camp said they would keep working on raising his electability despite the survey.
“This a good result but Agus, Sylviana and the campaign team will work harder to ensure our victory,” Agus-Sylviana campaign team member Didi Irawadi said.
Based on the survey, Agus was also gaining significant backing from middle to low-income respondents, as well as respondents with only an elementary or junior high school education.
