Ever since the NasDem Party, the Democrats and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) formed the KPP earlier this year and named Anies as their presidential candidate, the alliance has failed to settle on who would run alongside him on its ticket, and ultimately resorted to allowing Anies to pick his running mate from a few vetted candidates.

The Democrats have suggested chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono for the role and the PKS has put forth its politician and former West Java governor Ahmad Heryawan.

Also thought to be in the mix is East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawinsa, who hails from the National Awakening Party (PKB).

But with Anies saying over the weekend that a formal declaration would not be made anytime soon even though he already had someone in mind, the Democrats pointed to this uncertainty as the factor behind the decline of 9.5 percentage points to Anies’ electability over the past few months.

The results of an opinion survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia released on Sunday show that Anies’ electability fell to 18.9 percent in late May, continuing the downward trend from 28.4 percent in October 2022 to 24.2 percent in January and then 22.2 percent in April.

The May survey ranked Anies last in a simulation of three candidates, after Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo with 34.2 percent and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto with 38 percent.

According to the published results, the remaining 8.8 percent of the total 1,230 respondents surveyed were undecided.

In contrast, Prabowo's electability has been on an upward trend since January.

Meanwhile, Ganjar's has hovered at around 34 percent after rebounding from a dip of almost 7 percentage points in mid-April. This was attributed to his supporting the refusal of his party, the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), to allow the Israeli national team to play in the U-20 World Cup 2023, which contributed to FIFA stripping Indonesia of its hosting rights.

A similar trend was revealed in the survey results published on Monday by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).

The SMRC survey found that Anies' electability among “critical voters” had fallen by 10.5 percentage points to 19.2 in late May, from 29.7 in December 2022. On the other hand, Ganjar’s rating had increased by 5 percentage points and Prabowo’s by 6 percentage points over the same period.

“So we are going to suggest that Anies immediately declares [his running mate] this month so that the [ratings] gap will not grow even wider,” Democrats campaign manager Andi Arief said on Monday.

If not, the Democrats would have no choice but to reevaluate Anies’ presidential prospects, he added.

The party’s ultimatum comes after a NasDem senior politician said the KPP would declare a running mate next month.

If the Democrats pull out of the alliance, however, the KPP would fall short of the presidential nomination threshold, leaving Anies’ presidential aspiration in tatters.

Crack in alliance?

The PKS was quick to hint that it favored a rapid decision, triggering speculation over whether the issue would divide the alliance further.

“[The Democrats] have made a good suggestion. We of course appreciate that,” the PKS’ Almuzammil Yusuf said on Monday, as quoted by Tempo.co.

“Hopefully, we can make this happen through dialogue between Team 8 [Anies’ campaign team], the presidential candidate himself and the leaders of the three political parties.”

Read also: NasDem, opposition parties seek unity on shaky ground

But Taufik Basari of the NasDem central board played down the Democrats’ ultimatum, insisting that the alliance remained solid. He also cautioned KPP members against rushing into announcing Anies' running mate, as this would not necessarily fix his low electability.

Naming the vice presidential candidate “is part of the dynamics that requires careful calculation”, he told Tempo.co on Monday. “There is no guarantee that a quick announcement will improve [Anies’] survey results, or vice versa."

Taufik added that NasDem would leave the matter entirely to Anies. "The alliance once agreed to allow him to choose [his running mate]. Hopefully, we all honor this commitment," he said.

'Jokowi’s antithesis'

The decline in Anies’ electability rating, according to Burhanuddin Muhtadi of Indikator Politik, was a consequence of his trying to build his image as an opposition figure when President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo had a high approval rating of 79.2 percent.

Read also: Ganjar top continuity candidate, Anies change bringer, survey finds

“This has put a lot of pressure on Anies, since he continues to frame himself as the antithesis of [Jokowi]," Burhanuddin said on Sunday.

On several occasions following his nomination, Anies has criticized several policies of the Jokowi administration, including the electric vehicle purchasing incentive it rolled out in April.

Burhanuddin added that Prabowo's increasing electability was another factor undermining Anies' rating. He also suggested that people who had formerly expressed a preference for Prabowo and then shifted their preference to Anies had now reverted to supporting the defense minister.