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2045 GDP target unreachable without big changes: Experts
Indonesia is holding on to its goal of becoming a developed economy by 2045, but to reach it, business as usual will not cut it.
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A residential area and commercial buildings in Jakarta are seen in this aerial shot on June 27, 2021. (AFP/Bay Ismoyo)
T
he National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) has revealed the economic growth it deems necessary to make Indonesia a developed economy by 2045, but the government and experts agree the envisioned rate will not be attainable without deep structural reforms.
In its draft for the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) for 2025-2029, Bappenas details that national GDP growth needs to fall within the range of 5.6 to 6.1 percent throughout those five years.
To make the 2045 target, however, the country must achieve GDP growth averaging 7 percent.
“If we do not undergo reforms, we will not be able to reach the [targeted] GDP of US$9.8 trillion [by 2045],” Bappenas head Suharso Monoarfa said during the draft’s presentation on Monday.
He explained that, if Indonesia continued on its current trajectory, the projected GDP would be around $7 trillion in 2045.
To lift the average to 7 percent, Bappenas targets annual GDP growth of up to 7.8 percent in the fifteen years from 2030 through 2044.
Jakarta has been adamant about not letting Indonesia fall into what is known as the “middle-income trap”, where a country fails to advance to join the ranks of high-income economies.
