TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

Scientists cast doubt on famous US groundhog's weather forecasts

The US state's tradition of using a large rodent to predict the seasons dates back to the Pennsylvania Dutch belief that if a groundhog left its burrow and saw its shadow, it would scurry back inside and winter would go on for six more weeks.

AFP
Washington
Sat, February 1, 2025

Change text size

Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone

Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!
Scientists cast doubt on famous US groundhog's weather forecasts Groundhog handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil after he did not see his shadow predicting an early Spring during the 138th annual Groundhog Day festivities on Feb. 2, 2024 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the United States. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada with over 40,000 people spent a night of revelry awaiting the sunrise and the groundhog's exit from his winter den. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (AFP/Getty IMages/Jeff Swensen)

S

cientists have cast doubt on the reliability of America's most celebrated rodent forecaster, whose apparent knack of predicting how long winter will last forms a hallowed tradition in the United States.

Punxsutawney Phil, made famous by the 1993 film Groundhog Day, attracts thousands of onlookers every Feb. 2 to the Pennsylvania town that he takes his name from.

The US state's tradition of using a large rodent to predict the seasons dates back to the Pennsylvania Dutch belief that if a groundhog left its burrow and saw its shadow, it would scurry back inside and winter would go on for six more weeks.

But professional forecasters have warned ahead of Phil's appearance this Sunday that his prediction is likely to be way off the mark.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has concluded that only 35 percent of Phil's forecasts have proved to be accurate, placing him at a lowly 17th compared to other rodent forecasters.

Staten Island Chuck, a New York-based groundhog, tops the rankings with an impressive 85 percent accuracy rate on his forecasts.

Phil and his predecessors, also called Phil, have been forecasting since 1887.

Your Opinion Matters

Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.

Share options

Quickly share this news with your network—keep everyone informed with just a single click!

Change text size options

Customize your reading experience by adjusting the text size to small, medium, or large—find what’s most comfortable for you.

Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone

Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!

Continue in the app

Get the best experience—faster access, exclusive features, and a seamless way to stay updated.