Obamania has now spread throughout the world. Barack Obama -- whom many expect to be an agent of change for the U.S. image in world politics in the wake of the Bush presidency -- has become an icon consisting no longer of merely flesh and blood. Instead, Obama is now synonymous with a new hope not only for the United States but also for the rest of the world.

In Indonesia, unfortunately, only a few realize the significance of this Obamania, and fewer still are taking away a valuable lesson for Indonesia's elections from watching the United States prepare for its. Obamania, I bet, is very limited to a few intellectuals in Jakarta or other major cities in Indonesia.

Those who follow the news and world politics, and particularly those who study abroad, understand this phenomenon taking hold in the rest of the world. Their numbers are of course very limited compared to those who do not care about the U.S. elections.

My colleagues, Ulil Abshar Abdalla and Bramantyo Prijosusilo, are among those who are happy to see this Obamania take hold among the Indonesian elite. So am I. The difference is my two friends are optimistic, while I am pessimistic.

True, many Indonesians hope to have a younger politician -- or specifically a younger president -- who will bring real change to Indonesian politics. Put simply: Who does not want to see a young, attractive, smart, intellectual and promising Indonesian future president? Likewise, who is not bored with the same old faces who deliver the repetitive promises and boring rhetorical speeches on TV?

Every Indonesian wants change. Everybody is bored with the same old stories: crisis, inflation, corruption, price increases on fuel and commodities, violence in the name of religion, etc. The way in which Indonesians express their feelings, however, differs in line with what they hear, read and see -- be it TVs, newspapers, books, or mere hearsay.

Indeed, Obamania coincides well with the tenor of current Indonesian politics, a dream to have a young president for the 2009 election. Yes, Rizal Mallarangeng, Fajroel Rachman and Ratna Sarumpaet have thrown their hats into the ring. How serious they are is still questionable and far more questionable is how they might succeed.

Amien Rais' unsuccessful bid in 2004 is worth remembering. He was far more popular in the eyes of Indonesians than these three young Indonesian intellectuals, due to his role in beating the drum of reform.

No matter how bitter the reality, we have to face the fact there is almost no correlation between academic achievement and popularity in the eyes of Indonesians. Indonesia is neither the United States nor Germany. In those two countries, public debates, where politicians sell their promises, influence their popularity.

In those two countries, for example, any statements by Angela Merkel or Barack Obama are repeated by the media, which people consume daily. The people then justify their choice based on, for example, whether or not their promises might increase the quality of people's life. In this way, public reasoning plays its role.

The situation in Indonesia is far different. Our democracy is still based on mere quantity and is still far from achieving quality. To illustrate this point, the vote of one professor is equal to that of one ojek (motorcycle taxi) driver.

It is therefore better to have a hundred votes from ojek drivers than to have one vote from a professor. I am sure Mallarangeng, Rachman and Sarumpaet are better able to convince one professor. Yet I doubt their ability to win the hearts of a hundred ojek drivers.

Political parties, according to many young Indonesian intellectuals, have still failed to play their part in democratizing the country. These parties still lack truly democratic leaders, a situation these three intellectuals want to rectify.

However, without adhering to a particular party, running for Indonesian president remains infeasible; just imagine how many obstacles they will face in the nominating process alone. The fact these three have no political affiliation as yet also increases my doubts they will succeed.

My doubts are not due to my disagreement with their attempts but rather to my realistic view. I do hope for a miracle -- admittedly unlikely -- which will draw the attention of more Indonesians to weigh reasoning more than emotion or myth as they consider how they will vote.

The writer is a lecturer at State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga in Yogyakarta. He can be reached at nabiy13@yahoo.com

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