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Pattaya incident: A sad day for ASEAN

For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), April 11, 2009, will be remembered as the day of a major embarrassment

Rizal Sukma (The Jakarta Post)
JAKARTA
Mon, April 13, 2009

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Pattaya incident: A sad day for ASEAN

For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), April 11, 2009, will be remembered as the day of a major embarrassment. The Thai government was forced to cancel the summit between ASEAN and its dialogue partners — the ASEAN+3 (APT) Summit and the East Asian Summit (EAS) — initially planned to be held in Pattaya. Hundreds of red-shirted pro-Thaksin protestors broke into the site of the summit and forced the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to declare a state of emergency in Pattaya.

ASEAN has clearly become a hostage to internal political struggle in Thailand, between pro-Thaksin forces and the government led by PM Vejjajiva. Earlier, political turmoil in the country also forced the Thai government to postpone the ASEAN Summit, which was later held in Hua Hin early this year. The postponement then was already seen as a major problem for ASEAN.

Now, the cancellation of the summit with dialogue partners — which could play an instrumental role in helping ASEAN countries withstand the impact of the global financial crisis — could prove even more devastating for Thailand in particular and ASEAN in general. The fact that ASEAN foreign ministers and leaders, and leaders of China, Japan and South Korea had to be evacuated certainly does not sit well with all the rhetoric about ASEAN being in the driver’s seat in the regional community-building process in East Asia.

Indeed, the incident points to three significant problems. First, the inability of Thailand to utilize democracy as a means to stabilize domestic politics has now provided anti-democracy forces in the region additional ammunition to further undermine the merits of democracy. Worse, the incident could further strengthen the impression that the region is indeed suffering a democratic backslide. In other words, the case of Thailand would give those who favor “discipline” over democracy the upper hand in the “democracy” versus “order” debate.

Second, regional relations can no longer be based on the antiquated structures of the ASEAN-driven process. Problems in ASEAN member states — be they problems in new democracies or in authoritarian member states — will continue to derail any efforts to achieve progress of cooperation in the wider East Asian context. This time the culprit is the problem in Thailand, but it could soon be the problem in Myanmar or in any other authoritarian ASEAN state. The refusal by most ASEAN member states to initiate meaningful change, as reflected in the conservative ASEAN Charter, would make it impossible for ASEAN to retain its diplomatic centrality in shaping the emerging regional order.

Third, related to the second problem, the ASEAN-driven process can no longer be expected to serve as an effective platform for resolving regional problems. Nor can it serve as an effective venue for managing the relationships among regional major powers. After the Pattaya incident, it is hard to imagine that ASEAN will continue to command the same level of high respect from its partners. ASEAN dialogue partners, even though they will still regard ASEAN as an important organization, might now begin to think about new regional arrangements where their interests could be better managed.

However, the situation is not beyond repair. Indonesia should step in to save not only ASEAN but more importantly also the region. While far from being perfect, Indonesia just demonstrated its ability to hold a relatively peaceful election. Over the last 10 years, we have become a beacon of stability and democracy in the region. Indonesia does have the credentials to step forward and take necessary steps to boost the confidence of major powers in the merits of Southeast Asia.

First, Indonesia should immediately offer to host the cancelled APT and the EAS in a not-too-distant future, preferably back to back with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) meeting in early May in Bali. Due to the growing impact of the global financial crisis on the region, the APT Summit is too important to be postponed indefinitely. Indonesia’s offer to host the APT Summit would also thwart cynical views that democracy is not good for regional cooperation.

Second, Indonesia should begin to take the lead in the process of searching for an alternative regional architecture which is more suitable to the changing reality in East Asia. With the rise of China and India, the return of the United States to East Asia, the significant role of Australia and South Korea, and the possible revitalization of Japan’s political role, the ASEAN-driven process will soon become obsolete. ASEAN will only be useful for maintaining good inter-state relationships among Southeast Asian countries. It cannot function effectively as a platform for managing regional relations that will be dominated by China, India, the US and Japan.

The Pattaya incident serves as a clear sign that change is indeed imperative. Indonesia should not let itself be held hostage to ASEAN. It should begin moving beyond this outmoded vehicle if it wants to retain its relevance in the international relations of the Asia-Pacific region. This, however, does not mean Indonesia should abandon ASEAN altogether. As mentioned earlier, ASEAN will continue to be valuable for Southeast Asia, including Indonesia.

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