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any influential people in Southeast Asian countries are predicting the region would see moderate to strong economic growth in 2019 in spite of pessimism underpinned by uncertainty, according to a survey released on Monday.

The survey, mostly of members of the region’s political elite, found that the 55.4 percent of respondents who hold a positive economic outlook for the region outweigh the 21.3 percent who feel that the 10 ASEAN member countries would experience a moderate or sharp downturn this year.

The most bullish sentiments are found in Laos (86.2 percent), Cambodia (66.7 percent) and Brunei (64.4 percent). Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand are more bearish, according to the survey by the Asian Study Center, part of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) — Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

When asked about the state of the region, 44.7 percent said they expect Southeast Asia to encounter a period of uncertainty in 2019. Some 32.3 percent said they see the region as stable or very stable and 23 percent said they view the fundamentals as unchanged. Singaporeans are the most pessimistic, with 66.9 percent saying they are expecting the year to be marked by uncertainties and even turbulence.

“The strong endorsement of the economy is somewhat surprising given the current headwinds from the on-going [United States]-China trade war,” said the report, which was based on an online survey in November and December involving 1,008 respondents drawn from academia, think-tanks, governments, business, civil society and the media.

Political instability tops the list of security concerns for 2019, according to 53.7 percent of respondents, followed by ethnic and religious tensions (52.9 percent), climate change (51.6 percent) and economic downturn (51.1 percent). Climate change is the top security concern in Laos, the Philippines and Singapore, while ethnic and religious tensions come first in Indonesia and Myanmar.

The survey had some unkind words for ASEAN, which was founded in 1967 and declared itself to be an economic community in 2016, although it would not become a full-fledged one until 2025.

Some 72.6 percent of respondents said they are disappointed the tangible benefits from the membership are not felt; 62 percent said ASEAN is becoming an arena for big power competition; 61.9 percent said they see ASEAN as unable to cope with fluid political and economic developments; and 44 percent said they are concerned ASEAN is becoming increasingly disunited. (emb)