S

outheast Asians see Chinese economic and political preeminence in Asia as inevitable, but they are not convinced that Beijing will use its newfound powers for the benefit of global peace, security, prosperity and governance, a survey released on Monday has shown.

About three out of four respondents in the survey conducted in the 10 member countries of ASEAN believe China is laying the groundwork for it to take on the mantle of leadership in response to the United States’ growing indifference, according to the survey by the Singapore-based ASEAN Studies Center.

The center, part of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) — Yusof Ishak Institute, conducted the online survey in November and December and involved 1,008 respondents drawn from the region’s academic think tanks, governments, businesses, civil society groups and media communities.

“The region does not see any viable leadership other than China to replace the US among other possible contenders,” it said, noting that Japan was a distant second at 9 percent.

But China has yet to dispel the distrust ASEAN countries harbor about its intentions in Asia, with 51.5 percent saying they have little or no confidence Beijing will “do the right thing” in contributing to global peace, security, prosperity and governance.

The US, which in the past five decades has provided security guarantees in Asia, fares only slightly better, with 50.6 percent saying they have little or no confidence. Japan scores highest in the trust ranking with 65.9 percent of the respondents saying they have confidence that it will do the right thing.

Other findings support views that the US is losing its global influence. Nearly six out of 10, or 59.1 percent, think US power and influence on the global stage has deteriorated; 68 percent think Washington is disengaging even more under President Donald Trump; and 68.1 percent are unsure or have little confidence in the US in terms of reliability as a strategic partner or provider of regional security.

Underpinning the distrust of Beijing is the perception shared by 45.4 percent of the respondents that “China will become a revisionist power with an intent to turn Southeast Asia into its sphere of influence”, while 35 percent subscribe to the view that “China will provide alternative regional leadership in the wake of perceived US disengagement”. Only 8.9 percent see China as a “benign and benevolent power”.

ASEAN respondents hold ambivalent views about China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Forty-seven percent think “it will bring ASEAN member states closer into China’s orbit” and 35 percent also see it as “much needed infrastructure funding for countries in the region”. A total of 30.7 percent think it is too early to conclude due to a lack of sufficient information and 15.7 percent think the initiative will not succeed and provide little benefit to local communities.

While 70 percent of respondents caution their government to be careful in negotiating with China, only 6.6 percent believe their countries should avoid participating in BRI projects.

The survey found that China has the most influence in Southeast Asia both economically (73.3 percent of respondents) and politically (45.2 percent), compared to the US, with 7.9 percent and 30.5 percent respectively.

More than two-thirds of the respondents believe the US and China are on a collision course, given China’s power ambitions and the US’ refusal to give up its primacy without a fight, and that Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, seen by some as an attempt to contain China’s rise, will not likely make any headway.

The US and the West are perceived to be ahead of China in terms of soft power. The survey shows the US is still the top choice for those seeking tertiary education at 31.5 percent, followed by the European Union, Australia and Japan. China comes at a distant last with 2.7 percent.

On tourism, Europe scores highest for dream vacation spots with 34 percent, followed by Japan, an ASEAN member country, the US, Australia, China and India. English remains the foreign language of choice in the region at 91.3 percent. Mandarin Chinese scored a significant 44.7 percent, which speaks to China’s growing economic political and cultural clout, and the increasing use of Mandarin in trade, commerce and tourism in the region. (emb)