TheJakartaPost
Please Update your browser
Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.
PLN too ambitious, coal-reliant: Experts
Making the rounds: A worker conducts a routine inspection at the Grati steam-powered electricity plant in Pasuruan, East Java, on March 21
Change Size
M
aking the rounds: A worker conducts a routine inspection at the Grati steam-powered electricity plant in Pasuruan, East Java, on March 21. The 950-megawatt plant is in a standby state but can be activated anytime should electricity demand increase.(Antara/Widodo S. Jusuf)
Critics have called PLN’s recently issued electricity procurement plan (RUPTL) for the 2019-2028 period overly ambitious and chided the state-owned electricity company for reneging on its clean energy plans.
Some experts believe the company’s expectation for electricity demand growth is too high.
A recent analysis from global energy think tank Institute for Energy, Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said, even though the demand growth estimate had been lowered from the previous plan, it was still “too
ambitious”.
The IEEFA recorded average demand growth of only 4.6 percent in the last five years (2013-2018), while PLN set the demand forecast at 6.42 percent in its latest procurement plan, down only slightly from the 6.86 percent projection in its older nine-year plan.
“[The demand growth forecast in the new plan] is indeed slightly lower than in the previous plan, but in reality, electricity growth in 2018 was only 5.1 percent. [That low growth] cannot justify the continued use of an overly ambitious assumption in the RUPTL,” the IEEFA statement said.
Last week, when presenting the new RUPTL to the public, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan said coal-fired power plants would still dominate the country’s electricity supply at 54.6 percent, or 0.2 percentage points higher than in the previous plan.
“The use of coal in our power grid is still high at 54.6 percent from the total 100 to 110 gigawatts in 2025. Meanwhile, the contributions of renewable energy and gas stand at 23 percent and 22.2 percent, respectively,” he said.
Even though the percentage remains unchanged, the new plan sees an increase in electricity generating capacity from renewable energy sources at 16.7 GW, 1.8 GW more than in the previous RUPTL.
However, the IEEFA lamented that the new RUPTL plans for renewables were still dominated by large-scale geothermal and hydropower projects, while ignoring Indonesia’s solar power potential.
“By contrast, solar which has proven to be cost-competitive in other Asian markets, is almost totally overlooked in the RUPTL and was cut back by 13 percent in the current plan. This translates into an expected increase of only 908 MW of solar [power capacity] within the next 10 years,” the analysis further stated.
Based on the latest government data, the country only has 0.09 gigawatt peak (GWp) in installed photovoltaic power generation capacity, or 0.02 percent of the total potential installed capacity at 207.8 GWp.
Four other aspects of electricity development have been revised through the latest procurement plan, namely network transmission development, network substations, distribution and distribution substations.
Development plans for all of them were lowered by 10 percent to 33 percent, from the forecasts stipulated in the RUPTL PLN 2018-2027.
The highest cut was for the development of distribution substations, which was revised down to 33,370 megavolt ampere (mva) from 50,216 mva.
However, the institute said there was no correlation between investment in planned infrastructure for electricity and in renewable energy generation.
“The decision to cut back investment in the system does not appear to reflect any system requirements to cater for more penetration of intermittent renewables in the future,” it further stated.
“[In] terms of planning for additional generation capacity, the RUPTL remains anchored in old technology and is overly reliant on fossil fuels.”
According to the new plan, the additional generation capacity until 2028 will amount to 56,395 MW, up from the previous plan at 56,024 MW.
Regional think tank Centre for Energy Research Asia (CERA) director Adhityani Putri noted that the plan still reflected a dominance of coal-fired power plants (PLTU).
“The electricity generation [plan] isn’t very different. It is still dominated by coal power plants. In fact, there are projects that had been eliminated with the previous RUPTL but that are there again now,” she told The Jakarta Post recently.
She was referring to the PLTU Java 5 and Java 9-10 power plant projects, which environmentalists have warned will cause massive pollution.
Environmental group Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi) had demanded that the government not include those two and another seven PLTUs in Java and Bali in the new electricity plan.
“The discussions on the RUPTL 2019-2028 need to [produce agreement on] cancelling nine PLTU projects included in previous plans to save PLN from financial losses and to mitigate the impact of pollution from the plants’ operation,” Walhi energy campaign manager Dwi Sawung said recently.
The other six PLTUs are Java 6 in Cikarang, Cirebon 2 in Cirebon, Tanjung Jati B in Central Java, Celukan Bawang 2 in Bali, Indramayu in West Java, Tanjung Jati A in West Java and Java 8 in Cilacap.
More recently, Sawung expressed disappointment over the new RUPTL, as power generation would remain highly dependent on coal, especially in the Java-Bali region.
“While the current condition of an electricity surplus in Java and Bali is a great opportunity for a transition to renewable energy, the [plans for too many PLTUs] will limit the number of renewable energy power plants,” he said.
According to the Indonesian Private Power Plants Association (APLSI), there has been a surplus of power since the beginning of last year.
APLSI spokesperson Rizal Calvary said the power surplus had begun to get attention with the revision of PLN’s target from 78 GW in new power plant capacity to only 56 GW in the RUPTL 2018-2027.
“I predict that the surplus will continue in 2022 and 2023 for the Java-Bali power grid, as a number of power plants as part of the 35 GW program will start to operate,” he said.
Last week, PLN corporate planning director Syofvi Roekman said the company would add around 3.8 GW in capacity this year, with a 1-GW PLTU being the biggest contributor.
“It’s true that there was an adjustment to the 53 GW program, but we will still continue it. Yet, some of the power plants will only start operating in 2023 and 2024,” he said, adding that around 570 MW of the 3.8 GW came from renewable energy.
As of December 2018, more than three years after the flagship 35 GW power generation program was initiated, only 2.8 GW, or 8 percent of the total, are in operation.
Most of the projects, accounting for 18.2 GW or 52.01 percent of the total 35 GW, are still in the construction phase, recent government data show.
The remaining projects are at various stages of development, with some still awaiting construction, others still in the procurement phase and yet others still in the planning phase.
