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View all search resultsBusinesses project 2026 growth at no more than 5.4%
Apindo chairwoman Shinta W. Kamdani said the first quarter of 2026 was likely to deliver the year’s strongest momentum as New Year, Lunar New Year, Ramadan and Idul Fitri will drive spending.
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(Left to right) Apindo's economic policy analysis committee head for banking and financial services Aviliani, Apindo's chairwoman Shinta Kamdani and Apindo's deputy chair Sanny Iskandar, during Economic Outlook 2025 briefing on Dec. 19, 2024, in Jakarta. (JP/Aditya Hadi)
T
he Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) expects the economy to grow between 5 and 5.4 percent in 2026, projecting an “optimistic but cautious” outlook and warning that performance will hinge on policy support and Indonesia’s ability to navigate global risks. The figure is relatively lower than Bank Indonesia’s projection of 4.9 to 5.7 percent GDP growth next year.
Apindo chairwoman Shinta W. Kamdani said the first quarter of 2026 was likely to deliver the year’s strongest momentum as New Year, Lunar New Year, Ramadan and Idul Fitri will drive spending across trade, logistics, accommodation, tourism and consumer-related industries.
However, she cautioned that a growth deceleration could emerge in the second and third quarters once seasonal effects fade, particularly if the government does not introduce fresh pro-growth policies to sustain activity.
Apindo warned that global uncertainty would remain elevated in 2026, citing potential policy shifts under United States President Donald Trump, continued tensions in the South China Sea and the implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
These factors could affect the performance of Indonesia’s commodity exports and manufacturing sectors, especially those integrated into global value chains.
“We also note that several business sectors are still lagging behind national growth, underscoring the need for cross-sector strategies to promote more inclusive and sustainable expansion,” she said at the 2026 Economic Outlook press conference held in Jakarta on Monday.
The outlook is also clouded by domestic challenges, including the large-scale disasters that struck North Sumatra, West Sumatra and Aceh in recent weeks.
