The UN’s 2019 World Population Prospects report projected that the global population would reach 9.7 billion people by 2050 from 7.7. billion in mid-2019, with Indonesia placed eighth out of the countries expected to contribute most to the increase, with 60 million people. India ranked first with its estimated 273 million contribution.

The report comes amid efforts by the Indonesian government, specifically by the National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN), to reduce the country’s population growth to 1.06 percent by 2020 from the current 1.2
percent.

BKKBN acting deputy head of population control Dwi Listyawardhani said such an estimation was only normal given the country’s large population, noting that the report had projected Indonesia to no longer be listed in the world’s five most populous countries in 2050.

The report suggested that Pakistan would replace Indonesia as the fourth-most populous country, a title that the latter had held since 1990. Indonesia is expected to host 331 million people in 2050 from 271 million currently.

“This is a good sign that we can maintain the rate [of our population growth] by reducing our fertility rate, as compared to other countries,” Dwi told The Jakarta Post on Monday.

The government aims to reduce the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) to 2.1 by 2025 from 2.4 in 2017. The TFR refers to the average number of children born to a woman aged between 15 and 49 years old.

Dwi said the TFR varied between provinces, with some regions such as East Java and Bali having a rate of 2.1 while parts of eastern Indonesia still have a high rate, such as East Nusa Tenggara at 3.4.

“With a TFR of 2.1, Indonesia will see a change in its population’s age structure, leading to a demographic dividend. This is expected to last until 2045 and by then, we hope the country will have escaped the middle-income trap,” she said.

A demographic dividend occurs when the number of people of working age at between 15 and 64 years old is higher than the number of elderly and children, with Dwi estimating the current ratio at 2:1. Indonesia is expected to reap from the bonus, which will peak at 70 percent of the total population by 2030.

“We should make the most out of the productive age population boom to boost our economy. The working age population can only improve the economy when, among other conditions, they are of quality and possess competitiveness, and when there are job opportunities,” Dwi said.

As part of its efforts to boost the productivity of the workforce, the BKKBN has also targeted teenagers in its family planning program to prevent underage and unplanned marriage, called Generasi Berencana, which translates to well-planned generation.

“Teenagers must know that they have to get married at the right age when they are mentally and financially ready, because after that they have to continue working or studying,” Dwi said.

The UN report suggested that countries experiencing a demographic dividend invest in human capital, such as by ensuring access to education and job opportunities. An earlier report by the International Monetary Fund also proposed similar recommendations, adding that vocational training and job placement services must be improved.

In a recent interview with the Post, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo reiterated his plan to shift the focus from infrastructure development to human capital development during his second term to achieve “Golden Indonesia” in 2045.

One of the concerns raised by many is Indonesia’s lack of skilled workers.

The Manpower Ministry’s training and productivity supervision director general, Bambang Satrio Lelono, said that much was left to be done to enhance workers’ competencies. He cited a study by McKinsey Global Institute estimating that Indonesia would need 113 million skilled workers by 2030, with only 57 million having been achieved as of 2015.

He said that around 58 percent of Indonesia’s workforce comprised graduates of elementary school and junior high school, while graduates from higher education might find difficulties in finding a job due to a mismatch between their skills and the labor market’s needs.

To upgrade workers’ skills and align their competencies with those needed by industry, the government has been developing vocational training centers (BLK). Bambang said there were currently 305 such centers across the country, 19 of which were established by the ministry and the remainder by local administrations. The number does not cover centers founded by private companies.

The BLK program focuses on six sectors; manufacture, automotive, tourism, agriculture, creative industry and migrant workers.

“The number of BLKs is obviously still lacking. There are 516 cities and regencies across Indonesia, meaning that there are still 211 cities and regencies that do not have a BLK. The central and local governments should work together to build BLKs, but especially the local administrations that have the authority,” Bambang said.

He added that more funds needed to be allocated to enhance vocational training and education, including in infrastructure amid Industry 4.0, which will see technology advancements.

The budget allocated for the ministry this year is Rp 5.7 trillion (US$402.05 million), with Bambang saying that Rp 4.2 trillion was used for vocational training purposes. The budget might fall to around Rp 4 trillion and Rp 3.2 trillion respectively next year, although the decision was not yet final, he said.

“When the productive population doesn’t have the needed competencies, the demographic dividend will be a boomerang for us instead,” he said.

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