JP/Seto Wardhana

All parties to the Paris Agreement, including Indonesia, should be activating their 2020 to 2030 nationally determined contribution (NDC) on Jan. 1. They all should be reaffirming their climate-action pledge at the upcoming 25th Conference of the Parties (COP25), the annual meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in Madrid, Dec. 2 to 13.

The 2015 Paris Agreement is a legally binding accord by all supporting nations to combat climate change. It aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with the final goal of zero global carbon emissions by 2050.

Further, the intent is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average in world temperature. If no action is taken to curb the temperature rise, the 1.5 degrees cap would be breached in 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  

“Any temperature rise beyond 1.5 degrees will lead to major and irreversible damage to the ecosystems that support us,” UN Secretary-General AntÓnio Guterres warned at the Climate Action Summit in New York on Sept. 23. 

Greenhouse gas emissions are mainly carbon dioxide from land use change and fossil fuels like coal, petroleum and natural gas. The emissions rise in the atmosphere and trap the heat from the sun. This causes global warming that leads to extreme weather conditions with death and destruction as a consequence.

In Indonesia, carbon emissions mostly come from the energy sector and from converting forest and peatland to other uses. In its NDC, Indonesia has committed itself to reducing carbon emissions by 29 percent, or 41 percent with international cooperation, against a business-as-usual baseline. Leaving forest and peatland in their natural state would offset carbon emissions by 17.2 percentage points. Energy should contribute another 11 percentage point cut and the remaining 0.8 percentage points is shared among the three lesser factors: agriculture, waste and industry.

At the opening of the New York summit, Guterres said the biggest cost in tackling climate change “is subsidizing a dying fossil fuel industry, building more and more coal power plants”. He asked whether there was any common sense in building “ever more coal plants that are choking our future”.

Guterres still aired concern about coal in Bangkok for the ASEAN-UN Summit on Nov. 3. With new coal power plants still expected in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, he said, this “addiction” could undermine efforts to defeat climate change.

What is Indonesia’s stated climate position? Then-vice president Jusuf Kalla told the climate action summit on Indonesia’s low carbon development initiative (LCDI) through nature-based solutions. This included protecting and restoring forests and peatlands and intensifying energy transition by eliminating subsidies on fossil fuel use.

The LCDI allows for Indonesia’s economic growth through low carbon development activities and by curbing natural resource extraction. The government intends to mainstream this initiative into its 2020 to 2024 development plan. Although the government has done much, it is not enough. Indonesia may not reach its intended 29 percent target by 2030 if more vigorous measures, particularly in energy, are not taken. 

The reality is that Indonesia remains dependent on coal for energy security. This high carbon-emitting fossil fuel accounted for 58.3 percent of Indonesia’s energy mix in 2017. Its portion would only drop to 54.4 percent in 2025, according to the Electricity Supply Business Plan 2018 to 2027.

With a trade deficit and annual economic growth at a stagnant 5 percent, the government apparently continues to allow coal extraction and use to boost growth and minimize that deficit. 

Indeed, the declared intent is to phase out coal use and transition to renewable energy: hydro, geothermal, wind and solar power. However, the share of renewable energy in the energy mix stood at 12.52 percent in 2017 and would only rise to 23 percent in 2025.

A 2017 regulation of the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry arguably has been hindering renewable energy development. Under this regulation, the rates for renewables (except for geothermal and waste-to-energy) were capped at 85 percent of the local generation cost of the state electricity firm PLN. This regulation has a negative impact on the bankability of renewable energy projects, according to energy transformation program manager Jannata Giwangkara of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), a Jakarta-based think-tank.

This pricing problem is noted in the book 5 Tahun Kiprah UKP-PPI (5 Years Climate Work of the President’s Special Envoy). This office of the president’s climate envoy has been dissolved with the end of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s first term last month.

Meanwhile, the government’s LCDI has an ambitious high scenario target of a 43 percent drop in carbon emissions by 2030, higher than the 41 percent NDC target. But to reach that target, the LCDI calls for the “full enforcement of moratoriums in forests, oil palm, mining and peatland”.

To reach the emissions reduction target of 43 percent, the government should adopt the equally ambitious fifth of five scenarios for energy transition that IESR has drafted. The operation of coal-fired plants should be shortened to 20 years. No more new coal-fired plants are to be built after 2020. Indonesia would be on track to reach net zero by 2050, according to this fifth scenario.

The technology for Indonesia to reach and exceed its climate action target is available. The financing can be sought. The crucial part is political will. President Jokowi should visibly demonstrate political will and aim robustly if not ruthlessly for zero carbon emissions as his climate policy legacy.

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