W

hile government officials were debating social distancing measures, data show that there has been significant movement of people within and out of Jakarta since early April. This indicates the government’s call for a ban on the holiday exodus has not been effective and that the potential for COVID-19 spread in regions outside Jakarta is high.

We used Facebook Disease Prevention Map to track these people’s movement, and with this data we can analyze the pattern of people’s movement in a given time frame, between April 2 and 3. Facebook Disease Prevention Map is an aggregation of data from people who activate the location feature on their Facebook account.

From the analysis, we found that the majority of Jakartans travel within a 40- to 60-kilometer radius. There was also significant movement of people within a 500-km radius. Outside the 500-km radius we found nothing significant but there were movements in a 600-km radius, 900-km radius and between a 1,400- and 1,500-km radius.

We can infer from the data that people continued to commute within Greater Jakarta (for work, visiting relatives and sightseeing). This could indicate that Jakartans continued to be very mobile up until early April, in spite of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s social distancing order signed on March 31. The behavior could make it difficult to detect the transmission of the coronavirus from one place to another in Greater Jakarta.

Within the 500-km radius, we can infer that people have traveled to places like Bandung, in West Java 150 km away from Jakarta, Brebes, 280 km, Cilacap, 380 km, Semarang, 450 km, all in Central Java. Further away from these cities are Surakarta, 540 km and Yogyakarta, 560 km.

Within the 800- to 900-km radius, we found cities like Jember, Malang and Surabaya in East Java and if we draw a straight line to the west, in 500 km we have Palembang in South Sumatra, in 1,000 km is the border between Jambi and Riau, and in 1,400 kilometers are Padang and Bukittinggi in West Sumatra.

The data could lend credence to news reports that people were returning to their hometowns in Java and Sumatra. These homebound travelers simply did not want to wait for the Ramadan holiday and took advantage of government-mandated days off to return home. And without government actions, the number of people making their journey home could increase in the coming days and could peak during Ramadan, which will start next week, and Idul Fitri.

What is more significant is that we found a correlation between the mobility of people who activated their location feature on Facebook and a spike in COVID-19 cases in provinces on Java Island.

By April 3, the number of people under observation for COVID-19 in West Java was 685. By April 7, the figure had shot up to 2,365 (the official number of people having contracted COVID-19 rose from 225 to 343 in the same period).

In Central Java, the number of people under observation rose exponentially by 60 percent from 10,873 on April 3 to 16,346 only four days later, while the number of confirmed cases was up from 104 to 133 in the same period.

We analyzed location data from 250,000 Facebook users on April 3 and found that most were highly mobile within a 20- to 40-km radius. The number is significant enough to increase the chance of transmission in neighboring areas. This can indicate the ineffectiveness of measures taken by local and central governments to force people to shelter in place. This also reflects the low level of compliance of people toward social distancing measures.

We also found no significant movement of people between provinces, which is a stark contrast with what happened in Jakarta. This means that more resources could be mobilized to help social distancing measures in Jakarta.

In summation, the government-ordered social distancing measures have not been effective, even after the President announced a “health emergency” status and introduced the so-called large-scale social restrictions. Without concrete measures to enforce the measures, people will unlikely comply and massive transmission of the coronavirus can be expected.

If anything, we see a reluctance from the central government to curb people’s mobility out of Greater Jakarta. Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Pandjaitan openly argued against social distancing measures by saying that “the economy could die”, and that “people will make the journey for holiday exodus anyway.”

Prevention is hard but things could take a turn for the worse if no action is taken to curb people’s mobility. We need a quick solution and below are some of our recommendations:

We need a communication channel to help coordination between regional governments in Java. Such a measure could be helpful in tracking the movement of people from Greater Jakarta to their hometowns.

The central government should set up the communication channel.

Easing requirements for implementation of large-scale social restrictions (an authority which in fact resides with local government)

Shutting down all public transportation facilities (both land and air transportation). A public education campaign must be carried out in bus terminals, railway stations and airports.

Temporary hold on online ticket sales.

Providing incentives for economically vulnerable people who can’t make their journey home.

The government must consider the deployment of Indonesian Military troops to help the police enforce large-scale social restrictions, without having to impose civil emergency status.