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Controlling war button
Biden needed to demonstrate himself as a decisive leader in front of Xi because he knew very well the Republicans were waiting for him to commit “a slip of the tongue” that could be used to help defeat the Democrats in the mid-term elections next year.
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US President Joe Biden gestures as he meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. (AFP/Mandel Ngan)
U
nited States President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended their three and half hours of virtual meeting on Monday evening (Washington time) with hardly any concrete result because from the very beginning the encounter was designed more as a way to keep “all communications line open” at the highest level. Either Biden or Xi could represent themselves as the winner of the summit to their domestic audiences, although it seemed that the latter gained the upper hand as they concluded the conversation.
The lack of progress at the summit means rivalry and competition between Washington and Beijing will continue to escalate and other countries will have to adjust themselves to the uncertainty. Indonesia has decided to keep a distance from both conflicting sides, although this is not an easy choice.
One thing is sure from the summit, however. War is unlikely to erupt as a result of the wrong button being pushed. It may look simple, but amid the rising tension between the two economic and military giants, especially over Taiwan, such a simple technical mistake should not be overlooked.
It seemed the two leaders did not want a repeat of January’s incident. Back then China worried about then-president Donald Trump who might create chaos to prevent Biden’s inauguration. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley reportedly had to call his Chinese counterpart Li Zuocheng to assure him that Trump would not have any chance to use his last day of power to attack China.
During Monday’s summit the US was in an offensive mood while Beijing was more relaxed, although the Taiwan issue is super-sensitive for Xi’s domestic audience.
For Biden, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, the independence of Taiwan from China, cybersecurity and bilateral economic relations were among the most pressing issues to raise. Biden needed to demonstrate himself as a decisive leader in front of Xi because he knew very well the Republicans were waiting for him to commit “a slip of the tongue” that could be used to help defeat the Democrats in the mid-term elections next year.
Biden’s fundamental China policy was summed up by his Secretary of State Antony Blinken as “competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be”. But Biden does not have enough privileges to realize this slogan.
Xi clearly secured much stronger domestic support ahead of the summit. Last week, the Chinese Communist Party cemented Xi's status as equal to that of China’s great leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Xi has received a strong mandate to take military action against Taiwan anytime if necessary.
Indonesia and the other nine ASEAN members should pursue strategic interests apart from the US and China rivalry, especially in the issue of the South China Sea, which China claims as its territory despite global rejection of these claims. Tensions will continue rising in the region, and countries must keep adjusting themselves to the latest situation.
Nonclaimant Indonesia is not immune from possible confrontation in the South China Sea, as China insists its fishermen have the right to operate in the Natuna waters.
Hopefully there will be no military skirmish in the region that is caused by the wrong button being pressed.
