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Russia’s short-sighted ‘victory’ in Ukraine
Further sanctions can lead to an economic decline in Russia, which in turn may cause widespread dissatisfaction among ordinary Russians.
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Military vehicles are seen on a street on the outskirts of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk, Ukraine, on Wednesday. (Reuters/REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko)
T
here is little doubt that the Russian armed attack against Ukraine will be successful in a military sense, and that Russia will regain control over Ukraine, which it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
The United States and European NATO members will most probably not intervene militarily and only impose economic and other sanctions on Russia. But is Russia’s aggression against Ukraine really a clever, strategic move (as former US president Donald Trump stated) or will it rather backfire and have negative consequences for Russia?
First, many observers agree that by attacking Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin did not act in a rational way but was rather driven by emotions and nostalgia of former Russian greatness. His passionate speech in the Kremlin on Monday evening made clear that he sees Ukraine as an integral part of Russia, which after the collapse of the Soviet Union had no right to leave the Russian sphere of control and go its own way.
“Ukraine is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space,” Putin was quoted to have said.
Blind nationalism, imperial megalomania and exuberant nostalgia are, however, not good advisors for a rational and farsighted foreign policy.
Second, the effect of the economic and other sanctions now to be decided by the European Union, the US and many other countries should not be underestimated. They will accelerate Russia's relative economic decline in the long run.
In the last few years, Russia has developed resilience to sanctions thanks to its relevant natural resource exports, its considerable reserves of foreign exchange and import substitution. However, this resilience is not sustainable in the years to come. Europe's dependence on Russian gas will decrease in the long term. Many European states such as Germany have already announced to look for alternative sources as a consequence of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
