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Depreciating yen and its consequences for Indonesia’s economy
Japan’s consistent trade deficits and weakened yen may mean Japan can no longer finance large investments in portfolio, development assistance and foreign direct investment (FDI) in other countries, including Indonesia.
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Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike inspects a Pepper humanoid robot, manufactured by SoftBank Group Corp. during a press preview of a hotel of APA Group that has been designated to accommodate asymptomatic people and those with light symptoms of COVID-19 to free up hospital beds and alleviate work by nurses and staff members, in Tokyo, Japan, on May 1, 2020. (REUTERS/Issei Kato)
T
he Japanese yen (JPY) has a special place in the global economy. It is the third-most used currency for global payment, one of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) special drawing rights (SDR) currencies and widely used in trade financing.
It is also widely accepted as a “safe haven” currency in times of global volatility. In financial markets, the JPY is a “funding currency” that is used in carry trades against higher-yielding currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone.
However, in the past 12 months the yen has depreciated rapidly. As of June 14, the yen has depreciated by 23 percent against US dollar and 14 percent against the rupiah. This is unusual as the yen tends to appreciate against major currencies during a global upheaval. The cause of the depreciation is the increasing interest rate differential between the yen and other currencies and Japan’s ballooning trade deficit due to increased global energy prices.
In response, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) along with the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Financial Services Authority (FSA) tried to give signals to markets that the authorities are paying close attention to it and will intervene if necessary.
However, there are limited options for interventions as the global market for the yen is quite deep and it will exhaust Japan’s limited foreign reserves. It seems that the only possible policy option is a tighter monetary policy. But this threatens to jeopardize the fragile economic recovery from COVID-19 and re-anchor consumer expectations of deflation.
In addition, the BoJ is also keen on “inflating away” Japan’s huge debt burden, with most of it denominated in the yen. Therefore, it seems that a weaker yen is here to stay.
For Indonesia, the impact of a permanently weakening yen is significant. If Japan decides to directly intervene in the foreign exchange market, it will involve selling US treasuries, driving global yields up further.
