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A 5 percent defense trap: Indonesia’s path to strategic balance
Indonesia should pursue a balanced 2-3 percent GDP defense budget, leveraging quantum technology and strategic partnerships to strengthen its security, preserve its economy and maintain its non-aligned stance.
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A Harimau medium tank made by state-owned land weapons maker PT Pindad (right) is parked next to Pandur II 8x8 infantry fighting vehicle at the National Monument (Monas) in Central Jakarta on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (kompas.com/PT Pindad)
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t the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, United States Defense Secretary Pete Hesgeth called on Asian allies to boost defense spending to 5 percent of GDP to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. For Indonesia, with a projected US$3.5 trillion economy by 2050, this translates to a colossal $175 billion annual defense budget, 16 times its current $10.8 billion (0.78 percent of GDP).
While this could fund a futuristic military, the proposal is a fiscal and geopolitical trap.
Indonesia should instead pursue a balanced 2-3 percent GDP defense budget, leveraging quantum technology and strategic partnerships to strengthen its security, preserve its economy and maintain its non-aligned stance.
Hesgeth’s plea stems from US anxieties about China’s rise. China’s $296 billion defense budget (1.3 percent of GDP) supports a navy of 370 ships, surpassing that of the US at 290, and its $15 billion quantum technology investments dwarf the US $2 billion. China’s $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative and $127 billion trade with Indonesia, compared with $40 billion with the US, amplify its regional clout.
The US, grappling with a $35 trillion debt and an overstretched navy, is pressing allies to bolster its Indo-Pacific strategy. But for Indonesia, a 5 percent GDP defense commitment risks economic collapse and strategic misalignment.
Allocating 5 percent of GDP to defense spending would enable Indonesia to implement the long-term strategic plan of Perisai Trisula Nusantara (Nusantara Trident Shield), proposed by then-defense minister Prabowo Subianto in 2021. Perisai Trisula Nusantara is projected to cost a total of “only” $125 billion over a 25-year period.
By 2050, $175 billion annually could fund autonomous ground vehicles with quantum machine-learning, quantum-lidar anti-drone systems and next-generation tanks for the Army. The Navy, critical for an archipelagic nation, could deploy autonomous vessels with quantum-encrypted navigation, directed-energy weapons and underwater drones with quantum magnetometers. The Air Force could acquire sixth-generation fighters with hypersonic speeds, quantum radar and laser-armed UAVs.
