When President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo told his diehard supporters to vote for a candidate with “forehead wrinkles” and “white hair” in the 2024 presidential election, almost everyone concluded that he was referring to Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, whom all surveys put as one of three most popular public figures to succeed him.

Speaking on Nov. 26 at the gathering at Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jokowi said these were traits of a leader who had spent their time thinking about the wellbeing of the country. Jokowi may have been speaking cryptically, but only 54-year-old Ganjar fits the criteria of having “forehead wrinkles” and “white hair.”

The other two candidates’ hair have yet to gray or they have dyed their hair to keep a youthful look, but both are in the running and have the support of at least one major political party. Former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, one year older than Ganjar, has the support of the National Democratic Party (Nasdem), while 71-year-old Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has the support of the Gerindra Party, which he founded and chairs. Despite his huge popularity, Ganjar has yet to secure support from any political party.

When Jokowi was elected for the first time in 2014, he was 53 and hardly had any gray hair. Few supporters thought Jokowi may have been referring to himself rather than a successor in 2024.

Whatever Jokowi meant to say, last month’s gathering, which filled the stadium to capacity, was a show of force by him and his supporters, a repeat of the massive political rallies he held toward the end of the election campaigns in 2014 and 2019. Although he is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, he still has some clout, probably enough to determine the 2024 outcome.

How much real power and influence he has is open to debate. His statement, which many take as a veiled endorsement for Ganjar, created excitement among his supporters and anxiety within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the party to which Jokowi and Ganjar belong.

Anyone else in his position, with less than two years in power and no chance of reelection, would be a lame duck president by now. Jokowi is not one by any measure.

His approval rating may have dipped a little, but at more than 50 percent would be the envy of any final term president in any democracy in the world. He is still in control of the coalition government comprising seven parties, which together account for more than 80 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR).

At this late stage in his presidency, he can still easily pass his legislative agenda, with little or no opposition. The House’s endorsement of a bill on the new penal code this week, despite massive opposition from civil society, is the case in point.

Another is the House having agreed to his request to prioritize amending the New Capital City law, enacted in February. The law was hastily approved at the president’s instigation and now he wants to amend some of the articles, despite strong criticism against his project to build a new capital city in East Kalimantan to replace Jakarta.

What’s more

Jokowi draws his strength mostly from the massive army of loyal and dedicated volunteers. Many of these nonpartisan volunteers have been with him since he made his first presidential bid in 2014. They helped him win the presidential election both in 2014 and 2019. They continue to remain loyal and are waiting for his instructions about what they should do in the run up to 2024.

They were behind the earlier campaigns to give Jokowi a chance at a third term by demanding an amendment to the constitution. When this route closed as time ran out to change the constitution in time for 2024, they campaigned to get his term extended beyond 2024.

Both routes go against the constitution, which shows the length to which they are prepared to go. Jokowi drew rebukes for letting his supporters openly campaign in defiance to the constitution. He has since publicly renounced any intentions to stay in power beyond 2024.

Now his supporters change strategy. They are asking Jokowi who he wants as his successor, a candidate that he thinks would be best to continue his policies and protect his legacy, including the unpopular new capital project. They have been waiting for his word and will campaign for this candidate to ensure victory.

A Kompas survey last month shows that as much as 15 percent of respondents said they would vote for a candidate that Jokowi endorses.

Let there be no doubt that although Jokowi is out of the race, many people believe he can still make a difference to the outcome of the election in 2024.

The gathering at Gelora Bung Karno Stadium was organized by a group called Nusantara Bersatu (United Archipelago). It is no coincidence that Nusantara, Indonesian for archipelago, is the name Jokowi picked for the new capital city in East Kalimantan.

This is a different group from ProJo (short for Pro-Jokowi), which has held nine gatherings they call Musyawarah Rakyat (the People’s Deliberation) since August in different cities in Indonesia. These gatherings are held to find the best candidate to replace Jokowi, although implicitly they are campaigning for him to stay beyond 2024.

Jokowi has resisted pressures to use these volunteers as the basis to form a new political party and instead have directed them to support the PDIP, which won the most votes in the 2019 general elections in large part thanks to the support of the volunteers. They could lose these votes in 2024.

Jokowi’s endorsement for Ganjar, even if veiled, angered PDIP officials who say he is dangerously polarizing the party before the 2024 general elections. Secretary-General Hasto Kristiyanto responded cryptically saying a leader “should not be defined by the color of their hair.”

PDIP chair Megawati Soekarnoputri has resisted pressures to name the party’s candidate for 2024, insisting that she has the sole power to pick the nominee and that she would take her time. She wants her daughter Puan Maharani to continue the family tradition of leading Indonesia. Megawati is the daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia’s first president. The trouble is that Puan, who is the House speaker, does not rank highly in all surveys. And she does not have gray hair.

What we’ve heard

Three sources from parties supporting Jokowi said Jokowi’s long-time aides Eko Sulistyo, Sigit Widyawan and Devid Agus Yunanto were behind the rally on Dec. 6.

Eko and Devid has won Jokowi’s trust since the latter was the Surakarta mayor. Devid has been Jokowi’s private assistance since Jokowi was a mayor.

Sigit is one of Jokowi’s relatives and is now a commissioner of state bank BNI. Sigit is the son-in-law of Miyono Suryosardjono, President Jokowi’s uncle. In early September, Sigit initiated a volunteer training program at the Pondok Gede Hajj Dormitory by inviting a number of cabinet members. The training is planned to take place throughout the country.

“There must be an order from the top whenever they are no the move,” said a source.

Regarding the presence of Kadin chairman Arsjad Rasjid in the rally on Dec. 6, the source said the businessman had only get involved in the volunteers’ activities for some time. Another source said Arsjad, Eko and Aminuddin Ma’ruf had helped gathered volunteers for a meal.

Arsjad reportedly sponsored the event financially. A politician who supports the government said the entrepreneur had been close to Jokowi’s circle since the 2019 elections. At the time, he connected PT Indika Energy to Jokowi. Allegedly, one of Indika’s top executives, Wisnu Wardhana, supported Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno at the time.

Wisnu was one of Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono’s supporters in the Jakarta election in 2017. “He is an indigenous businessman who the government wants to promote besides Erick Thohir,” said a politician who supports the government.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

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