President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Megawati Sukarnoputri, the chair of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the largest party in the coalition government, have sharp and probably irreconcilable differences in their approaches to the 2024 presidential race. Jokowi, a member of the PDI-P, appears to be supporting Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto of Gerindra, another coalition member party. Meanwhile, Megawati has named Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo as the PDI-P candidate.

While the two have significant differences of opinion on how the country should be run, these were mostly kept out of the public eye. Jokowi often consulted Megawati as the party chair who gave him the presidential ticket in 2014 and 2019. With the elections six months away, cracks have emerged in this partnership, and they could widen unless the two reconcile their differences.

PDI-P Secretary General Hasto Kristyanto fired the first salvo, labeling Jokowi’s massive food estate project a complete failure and calling it an “environmental crime” because of the massive deforestation it has caused.

Hasto may have been targeting Prabowo, who as defense minister, was entrusted with running part of the project, especially when he claimed that the project’s money may have gone to the coffers of political parties. But the ultimate target cannot be any other than Jokowi, who launched the project in 2020 as part of his food security program. Hasto would not have spoken up so harshly against the President without the consent of party boss Megawati.

This week, Megawati fired a shot back by going public that she had told Jokowi several times to dissolve the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) as it is “no longer effective”, an indirect criticism of the president’s failure to stem corruption. For good measure, she reminded her audience that the KPK was set up in 2002 when she was president. In the first 15 years, the KPK jailed many cabinet ministers, top judges, police officers and politicians, but it faltered under a new law in 2020 that stripped away many of its investigative powers.

Jokowi has defended the food estate project to ensure adequate rice supply in anticipation of possible global shortages. He admitted that in some areas, the rice project failed but in others they have started to reap harvests. The President did not address the criminal charge, but under the 2024 budget plan he revealed last week, the food security program receives huge sums, some of which will go toward the food estate projects.

In deference to Jokowi’s power, House Speaker Puan Maharani softened the PDI-P charge. When asked about Hasto’s criminal claim, Puan, who is Megawati’s daughter, said: “Maybe it’s going too far to say that. We need to do field research first to determine that.”

Puan and many senior PDI-P politicians have often reminded Jokowi to show his loyalty by toeing the party line in the coming presidential election. Megawati has used the term “an officer of the party” to refer to Jokowi, and now Ganjar, making sure that everyone knows who the real boss is.

What’s more

Although Jokowi does not chair any political party, he commands the loyalty of millions of non-partisan supporters who would vote for the candidate or party that he suggests. Their votes could determine the outcome of both the presidential and legislative elections that will be held simultaneously on Feb. 14. The PDI-P knows that it won the most votes in the legislative elections in 2014 and 2019 thanks to Jokowi and may not be able repeat that feat in 2024 without the votes of “Jokowers.”

A Kompas survey published this week shows the extent of Jokowi’s power to influence the 2024 presidential election. The newspaper’s research and development department said that 49.7 percent of those surveyed said they “would consider” the candidate the incumbent picked.

Jokowi has not categorically stated who he will back in the presidential race, but in recent weeks, he seems to be leaning toward Prabowo, who he defeated in 2014 and 2019. Between Ganjar and Prabowo, the latter has been the most convincing in promising to protect and continue Jokowi’s legacy and major policies, including the construction of the new capital city in East Kalimantan.

As a sweetener to win over his support, Gerindra has proposed to name Jokowi’s son and Surakarta mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka as Prabowo’s running mate, should the Constitutional Court approve a petition to lower the minimum age of presidential and vice-presidential candidates to 35, from 40 in the current electoral law.

Gibran, who is 35 years old, has agreed to help campaign for Prabowo.

Not to be outdone, the PDI-P added Gibran to the shortlist of potential running mates for Ganjar, stating that the law must first be changed to accommodate his age.

Megawati is now facing internal pressure to crackdown on party members who are showing disloyalty in the coming elections.

Budiman Sudjatmiko, a PDI-P senior, has been told to quit the party or stop publicly endorsing Prabowo. Budiman has refused to do either, and Megawati is now faced with the choice of tolerating open dissent or expelling him from the party.

How she deals with Budiman could be indicative of how she will deal with Jokowi, and probably even Gibran, if they do not toe the party line.

In the meantime, we can expect more open criticism of Jokowi’s policies from the PDI-P.

What we’ve heard

The relationship between President Joko Widodo and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chair Megawati Soekarnoputri has strained following the inclusion of the Golkar Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) into the coalition supporting Prabowo Subianto. The move of Golkar and PAN was said to have been influenced by Jokowi. "Now it seems the presidential race is more between Megawati's camp and Jokowi's camp," said a source from the coalition supporting Ganjar Pranowo.

Several government-supporting politicians mentioned that Prabowo might choose Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's son and the mayor of Solo, as his running mate. "Gibran could be a meeting point for the party leaders in Prabowo's coalition who want to be vice presidential candidates," the source stated.

Two sources knowledgeable about the dynamics within the PDI-P have shared that the candidacy of Ganjar as a presidential candidate is being evaluated. According to them, Megawati has questioned those close to her about the reasons behind Ganjar's stagnant electability. Megawati also expressed concern about the party machinery in regions that have not mobilized to secure Ganjar's victory.

Considering these dynamics, some key figures within the PDI-P are attempting to establish communication with other parties. They are exploring the possibility of the PDIP forming a coalition with the Democratic Party and the NasDem Party to confront the Prabowo coalition supported by President Jokowi. "Puan Maharani is being discussed again because she has the opportunity to run for president or to be paired with Ganjar and Anies Baswedan," stated a politician.

However, the challenge is how to convince Megawati to change the political decision of the PDI-P. Some within the PDI-P believe that only Puan can discuss with Megawati to evaluate the party's strategy for the presidential election.

Another option that has emerged is to pair Ganjar with Anies. This idea has been openly suggested by one of the PDI-P's executives, Said Abdullah. Sources within the Ganjar and Anies coalition have mentioned that this option has been considered to counter the large coalition supporting Prabowo. However, determining who will run for the highest office is expected to be difficult.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. PDI-P targets Prabowo, Jokowi over ‘environmental crime’ of food estates
2. Jakarta breathes in crisis as govt scrambles to solve air pollution
3. Elections to influence upcoming TNI chief nomination           

Business and Economy

1. Debt for Jokowi's infrastructure projects looms over 2024 budget
2. Mandalika SEZ fails to deliver promised benefits to locals
3. Corporate interests suspected behind nationwide RTRW revision
4. Trade surplus decreases as imports surge due to low commodity prices

    

Popular

Young Garuda misses last chance to qualify for Paris Olympics

Elon Musk's Starlink granted licences to operate in Indonesia

Is Indonesia really ready to embrace dual citizenship?