The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the victor of the 2019 general election, has finally declared Mahfud MD to be the running mate of the party’s presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo for the 2024 election. That declaration, made amid President Joko ‘’Jokowi’’ Widodo’s shaky support for his fellow PDI-P member, was seen as the PDI-P asserting its confidence even if Jokowi eventually supports rival presidential contender Prabowo Subianto.

With the announcement, Indonesian voters have a clearer image of who will be on the 2024 presidential ballot paper after another candidate pair of Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin ‘’Cak Imin’’ Iskandar was revealed last month. All eyes are now turning to Prabowo Subianto, who is still mulling over a few alternatives, including Jokowi’s son and Surakarta Mayor Gibran Rakabuning Raka, who is now eligible to be a vice-presidential candidate following a Constitutional Court ruling issued on Monday.

Megawati explained that Mahfud was a perfect fit for Ganjar as the former had a complete background of occupying all the executive, legislative and judiciary positions. Mahfud MD is the coordinating political, legal and security affairs minister in Jokowi’s current cabinet. He served as a legislator from the National Awakening Party (PKB) from 2004-2009. After that, he served as Constitutional Court chief justice. In addition, Mahfud has strong ties with Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the biggest Muslim organization in Indonesia, and is confident that he is able to gather votes from the Muslim community, intellectuals and minority groups in the country. Because of his complete background, Mahfud was twice thought likely to be picked by Jokowi to be his vice-presidential candidate back in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections but was overridden by Jusuf Kalla and Ma’ruf Amin, respectively.

President Jokowi and his oldest son Gibran, both still card-carrying PDI-P members, were notably absent during the Mahfud announcement as the former was on an overseas tour to China and Saudi Arabia while the latter was intentionally not invited. Their absence has sharpened the view that Jokowi’s support is likely to fall behind Prabowo, rather than Ganjar.

For Gibran, his absence from the Mahfud announcement was his second consecutive absence from the PDI-P agenda after he did not show up at the opening ceremony of the PDI-P’s new office building in his own mayoral town of Surakarta, attended virtually by Megawati. The emergence of his name as one of the strongest candidates for Prabowo's running mate in the 2024 campaign also makes things even cloudier between Jokowi’s clan and the PDI-P.

Jokowi’s wavering support for his own party and Ganjar has been exposed through several events, among others being the recent announcement by Jokowi’s loyalist organization Pro-Jokowi, or Projo, of its support for Prabowo. Projo chief Budi Arie who is also Jokowi’s minister of communications and information, said that Projo’s backing for Prabowo was in line with Jokowi’s wishes. Although Jokowi himself has been working for Ganjar’s campaign strategy as PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto claims, many have acknowledged that Jokowi will not go against his own supporters in Projo as this organization is regarded as his loyal defenders. In addition, the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is now led by President Jokowi’s youngest son Kaesang Pangarep, is inclined to support Prabowo.

Puan Maharani, Megawati’s daughter, has no idea where Jokowi’s support in the upcoming election lies. On another occasion, former general Andika Perkasa, Ganjar’s campaign official, predicted that Jokowi’s support will significantly reshape the political landscape among presidential candidates ahead of the upcoming election.

What’s more

The Onward Indonesia Coalition, the coalition of political parties led by Prabowo, will likely be the last group to complete its presidential and vice-presidential candidate pair registration with the election commission between Oct 19-25. Gibran has been an appealing alternative for Prabowo as the former has strong electability in Central Java, a PDI-P stronghold. Also, by recruiting Gibran as his vice-presidential candidate, Prabowo is sure to secure Jokowi’s supporters.

Gibran has been the mayor of Surakarta in Central Java since 2021 with full support from his father's party, the PDI-P. Gibran, 36 years old, is now eligible to be nominated as vice-presidential candidate for Prabowo following the Constitutional Court’s decision on Monday that allows regional heads or former regional heads to contest presidential elections even if he is younger than 40 years old, as stipulated the Elections Law.

In addition to Gibran, State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir and East Java Governor Khofifah Indra Parawansa are equally strong candidates to be Prabowo’s running mate. Erick is said to be a stronger candidate because of higher electability based on a number of surveys. Also, Erick could bring with him financial resources to support the Prabowo campaign. Khofifah, meanwhile, has strong ties with NU and is especially popular in East Java, the main battleground for all candidates. Choosing Khofifah will also appeal to women as she will be the only woman in the contest. Sources said that even if Khofifah is not picked as vice-presidential candidate, Prabowo wants her to lead his national campaign team.

What we’ve heard

Gibran has the potential to become a vice-presidential candidate for Prabowo Subianto. The plan for the firstborn son of President Jokowi and First Lady Iriana to run in the 2024 General Elections is said to be based on the family's wishes.

Several sources familiar with the dynamics within Jokowi's family say that Gibran's desire to run is being pushed by his family. This stance has emerged from their observation of how the PDI-P has treated President Jokowi on various occasions. According to these sources, the PDI-P often doesn't treat Jokowi as the head of state in party events. "However, Gibran himself also has the desire to become a vice-presidential candidate," said a source within the Palace.

After the Constitutional Court's ruling to allow regional leaders under 40 years old to register as presidential and vice-presidential candidates, discussions about Gibran have become more intense. Sources close to the Surakarta, Central Java, family reveal that there is resistance from a majority of the family to Gibran running as a vice-presidential candidate. "The extended family does not support it following a family meeting," said this source.

In addition to family factors, Jokowi is also considering the public response to the decision. Two sources mentioned that the satisfaction level with the President immediately dropped after the Constitutional Court's decision. In various surveys, the satisfaction level with the President reached over 80 per cent. "The initial assessment dropped to around 60-70 per cent," they said.

On the other hand, Mahfud's nomination was decided last week and the party chairpersons were instructed to remain silent to the media. However, the declaration was not planned for yesterday and it was made suddenly. The information is that the declaration was made while Jokowi was on a foreign visit to show the PDI-P's stance toward Jokowi regarding his recent maneuvers.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

1. Court ruling paves way for Jokowi’s political dynasty
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3. Indonesian SOEs accused of supplying arms to Myanmar junta             

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