By signing an “integrity pact” with a group of conservative ulamas (Islamic scholars), presidential candidate Anies Baswedan may be gaining some extra votes. But he could also lose the support of a large segment of voters who are not comfortable with the group’s Islamist agenda.

News of the deal was disclosed by the Ijtima Ulama last week, which said signing the pact was a condition of the group’s endorsement of Anies, one of the three contestants in the Feb. 14, 2024, presidential election. It was not immediately clear when Anies and his running mate Muhaimin Iskandar had signed the deal, but the group said it sent the document on Nov. 19.

Ijtima Ulama and National Public Figures is a group of mostly conservative ulamas, including the once-firebrand Rizieq Shihab. It made its biggest impact during the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. The group organized a mass rally in Jakarta on Dec. 2, 2016, to oppose the reelection bid of incumbent governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, a Christian of Chinese descent, accusing him of blasphemy against Islam. Challenger Anies beat Ahok in the run-off, which many said would have been impossible without the support of the conservative ulama movement.

Now with his sights on the presidency, Anies may find his association with the conservative ulamas more of a liability. One of their leaders, Rizieq, has been silenced after serving a jail term for violating the COVID-19 pandemic mobility restrictions. His Islam Defenders’ Front (FPI), notorious for attacking and harassing minorities and anyone considered un-Islamic, has been outlawed. It has resurfaced with a new name, the Islamic Brotherhood Front, with same initials, but it has lost its sting.

The conservative ulamas may not be all that effective at mobilizing voters. In the 2019 presidential race, Ijtima Ulama got challenger Prabowo Subianto to sign its integrity pact in return for its endorsement. Prabowo went on to lose the election to incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo for the second time. Now running for the third time, Prabowo, whom surveys put as the frontrunner, is likely glad to be rid of the group.

Anies, who is trailing a distant second or third, along with Ganjar Pranowo, will need all the votes he can get, but aligning with the conservative ulamas may not be the answer and may even be counterproductive. Anies has been struggling to shake off the stigma that comes with his association with the religious conservatism promulgated by the ulama group.

He does not really need their endorsement given that his presidential ticket is already sponsored by two large Islam-based parties: the National Mandate Party (PKB), which his running mate Muhaimin chairs and is the party of the Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia’s largest Islamic mass organization, as well as the Justice Welfare Party (PKS), which runs on an Islamist platform. The largest party in the coalition supporting Anies is the NasDem Party, which runs on a nationalist-secular platform.

What’s more

Muslims make up nearly 90 percent of the population but they don’t represent a single voting bloc in elections. The majority of Muslims will vote for secular parties, and in the past only about 20 percent of voters chose Islam-based parties. The PKB and PKS are two of six Islam-based parties contesting in 2024. Ijtima Ulama is a small lobby group of conservative ulamas trying to find their place in the country’s political landscape.

Anies has since confirmed that he and Muhaimin signed the integrity pact.

“We are open to any expression of support. It’s a two-way thing, they give their support, and we give our commitments, which must still conform with the principles of statehood, [state ideology] Pancasila and the Constitution,” he said, implying the initiative had come from the ulamas rather than him.

Many of the 13 points of the integrity pact are not deeply conservative. They relate to commitments to fight secularism, Islamophobia, terrorism, separatism, imperialism and prevent the return of communism. They demand commitment to the eradication of corruption and the protection of human rights and freedom of expression, as well as support for an independent Palestinian state.

The points reflecting the ulamas’ conservative agenda include calls to use blasphemy laws against those who offend religions, to respect ulamas and pay heed to their opinions and to stop the supposed persecution of ulamas. The latter is in an apparent reference to the jailing of Rizieq, under almost any pretext, to silence him. Although already out of jail, he is on probation until June 2024, so his ability to speak publicly is limited.

It is not so much the substance of the integrity pact that voters will pay heed to. It is Anies’ association with the group, which could be a plus for conservative voters but a big turn-off for other voters. Since Anies’ ticket is already supported by the PKB and PKS, he already had the conservative Muslim vote in his pocket without signing the pact.

What we’ve heard

Two close associates of Anies said that the Assembly of Ulema convention was held to shift the support of its followers from Prabowo to Anies. The internal team of the presidential candidate had discovered through a survey that hardline Muslim community preferred Prabowo Subianto as president in 2024 as they did in 2019.

According to the sources, Anies's team is not worried about negative reactions from moderate Muslim voters and minority groups. They said Anies would intensify efforts to reach out to moderate Muslims and minority groups. "Both the moderate and right-wing Islamic groups don't have many options other than supporting Anies," one of the sources said.

Furthermore, Anies has been trying to remove the stigma as a champion of identity politics by attending more activities organized by non-Muslim communities. One of Anies's campaign team members said the former Jakarta governor would join a Christmas safari organized by the National Awakening Party (PKB). During the event, Anies will offer a political contract with the minority groups, similar to a pact he signed with the urban poor network ahead of the Jakarta election in 2017.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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