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Indonesia’s rhetoric of net-zero emissions
In order to push for growth, Indonesia may clear 2.1 million hectares of rainforest over the next five years, roughly the size of 30 Singapore islands, and still claim compliance with its emissions targets.
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In operation: The Suralaya coal-fired power plant in Cilegon, Banten, releases steam on Oct. 31, 2023.
(AFP/Ronald Siagian )
A
s world leaders convene for the United Nations climate conference (COP29) in the Azerbaijan capital of Baku, Indonesia’s pledge to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has come under the spotlight.
Based on conditional assumptions in its Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC), Indonesia is committed to cut carbon emissions by 31.89 percent in 2030. However, the country faces the challenge of balancing energy security, affordability and sustainability, known as the "energy trilemma", while pursuing the 8-percent economic growth ambitions of the new administration under President Prabowo Subianto.
Indonesia’s net-zero emissions pathway highlights an intricate dilemma, as the nation’s economic development has historically prioritized energy security to meet rapid growth in demand. This has often come at the expense of environmental sustainability, with the economy heavily reliant on extractive industries and fossil fuel energy sources, primarily coal.
In the 2023 Energy Trilemma Index by the World Energy Council, Indonesia ranked 58th out of 100 countries, demonstrating strong performance in energy security but falling significantly short in environmental sustainability.
Despite plans to reduce emissions, including the retirement of the Suralaya and Cirebon-1 coal-fired power plants, there is a disconnect between Indonesia’s economic targets and the structural changes required for a meaningful shift toward cleaner energy.
Coal-generated electricity has surged by 50 percent over the past decade, while coal production has continued to climb, from 528 million tonnes in 2018 (the year Indonesia ratified the Paris Agreement) to a record 775.2 million tonnes in 2023, with plans to exceed 900 million tonnes in 2024.
