This period also saw the reemergence of unilateral impulses, culminating in the United States-China trade war. This conflict expanded into broader tensions, fundamentally reshaping US-China relations.

Now, with Trump signaling his intention to continue the unfinished business of his first term—including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization on his first day—several features of his earlier term are likely to reemerge.

A bolder version of “Trumpian” American foreign policy is likely to feature in Trump’s second administration. In his inaugural speech, he emphasized American exceptionalism, forecasting a new era of strength and prestige, including aspirations to “expand territory”.

His rhetoric underscores the resurgence of unilateralism, protectionism and economic coercion. China remains a focal point of suspicion, with its state-led ventures—spanning TikTok to the Panama Canal—viewed warily.

While we can expect some degree of continuity under Trump, particularly concerning China, we can also expect a more transactional, and often combative, approach toward partners.

Economic decoupling from China will likely continue with sharper rhetoric. Unlike prior justifications framed around environmental or labor concerns, the narrative may now center solely on strategic rivalry with China. The composition of Trump’s cabinet, which includes several China hawks, further suggests a potentially aggressive approach in the new period.