It is still unclear what such a coalition, made up of the UK, some European Union governments and perhaps Canada and Turkey, will exactly do. Yet, the mission and overarching goal looks daunting: Guaranteeing peace in Ukraine.

There are many unknowns between now and such a possible ceasefire, and then a future, lasting peace, and in such a volatile environment, anything can happen. One seemingly insurmountable challenge is the fact that Russia has already indicated that it will not accept European boots on the ground in Ukraine.

At the same time, the long-term implications for the Asia-Pacific of what is unfolding in Europe and the “transatlantic” relationships remain unclear.

There is always the possibility of a military skirmish in the South China Sea and even a possible conflict if Beijing decides to take Taiwan by force, although the best scenario is so far maintaining the status quo.

Finalizing the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea would certainly help. But as explained by Jaime Naval at the University of Philippines Diliman in an essay for the East Asia Forum in November last year, the task is more and more “elusive”.  

In real terms, upholding the status quo means less interference by Beijing but also less provocation from Taipei and Washington. The recent live drills conducted by China’s navy off the coasts of Australia sent a message that, if triggered, Beijing will respond in kind.

As the US State Department recently erased a reference on its website to the official position that America does not support an independent Taiwan, Beijing is going to unleash its temper and will not back down. That is why it is pertinent to ask what positions ASEAN members will take in a conflict over Taiwan.

Certainly they will do whatever they can to avoid such a scenario, playing the role of mediators and finally, they will be forced to show real unity, leveraging their common weight and not just in economic and trade terms.

As Trump is pushing the EU to finally get serious about a common defense, a Taiwan crisis will force ASEAN to rise as a geopolitical power. But will ASEAN be up to the task? Will unity and cohesion among its members prevail?

I harbor skepticism toward the capacities of ASEAN to elevate itself to meet its endless potential.

Maybe it is a sort of “tough love” toward a great political project of regional integration. Mine, after all, is a disillusionment being continuously fed by the endless missed opportunities caused by a weak leadership and poor foresight.

Ron Huisken, an associate professor at Australian National University, in an essay for the CSCAP Security Outlook 2024, tries to provide a framework for ASEAN to become a guarantor of a rules-based order in the region.

To be capable of ensuring this framework in which rivalries between the two big powers are managed, ASEAN must become more assertive in the geopolitical realm. Assertive ASEAN must certainly learn to navigate the formidable challenges that the whole Asia Pacific might face.

And while ASEAN can seize the momentum, an incapacity to translate aspiration into strategic and tactical actions is also imaginable. See the Myanmar crisis, where even a “united” ASEAN approach to solve the conflict proved to be an utter failure.

ASEAN might not disintegrate even if stressed and shaken by an unconscionable war over Taiwan. Yet, it is very conceivable that it would lose, step by step, whatever semblance of relevance it still holds.

That is why establishing deeper ties among certain ASEAN members could make sense. On the one hand, the rationale behind this approach would explain a redoubling of efforts to make ASEAN appear credible and trustworthy, not only to Beijing and Washington but to its citizens.

And we know the leaders of these two capitals have a unique appreciation for strength projection.

But on the other hand, one must build bridges among likeminded members. For example, Malaysia and the Philippines, at least on paper, are more aligned to democratic principles, and soon-to-be member Timor-Leste should come closer, possibly bringing in also Indonesia and Thailand. Singapore, with its vast untapped democratic potential, could join the subgroup.

Ideally this could be what the Europeans call a “multi-speed” EU as such a sub-bloc could even be designed, at least officially, as part of ASEAN.

But this more democratic and progressive layer of nations could also start formulating a common approach more informally, even if the move would be an object of criticism by other member states.

Then we have the Quad, the informal group made up of Australia, India, Japan and the US. It would make sense to expand it to South Korea and the Philippines, especially if the group gets formalized as an alliance of free nations working together beyond the defense sector.

But a more intriguing option would be a new regional East Asian architecture composed of Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia.

The Quad might remain as informal and loose as it is now, but a new East Asia community of nations that would resemble the European Economic Community, the predecessor of the EU, might be an alluring option.

Then the democratic ASEAN front in whatever format chosen could be a strong partner of this new community of nations or even join it.

China will not be supportive of any of these hypotheses, but it is too big a power to be worried about new alliances in the region. A self-confident China should keep looking at the wider world as it has started doing with the Belt and Road initiative. 

After all, no one in the wider Asia-Pacific has a strategic interest or the capacities to confront and militarily antagonize China. Not even the US can gain from a confrontation with China.

Will ASEAN evolve, disintegrate or end up suffering from stunting? For sure, the next years are going to be an interesting time for the Asia-Pacific, hopefully with no war.

A Southeast Asian “coalition of the willing” could make the difference and help in this regard.

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The writer is a freelance columnist focusing on human rights, regional integration and youth in the Asia-Pacific.